A Hierarchical Model Study Of Chinese Women's Reproductive Intention And Behavioral Deviation

Since the beginning of the 21 st century,the demographic structure has been changing continuously,the transition from adult to old-age type only took 18 years,the burden of social old-age pension continues to increase,the follow-up reserve strength is insufficient.In order to cope with the negative impact of the aging of the population on the economy and society,the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18 th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to implement the "comprehensive twochild" policy of perfecting the population development strategy,at the beginning of the implementation of the policy caused widespread concern from all walks of life,but the number of births began to decline after a year and a half later,which shows that it is very difficult to encourage women to give birth continuously through macro-fertility policies alone,and more detailed preferential and subsidies policies about fertility also should be implemented to encourage women to have children.Women's behavior of fertility is mainly affected by their own will of fertility,and will of fertility often be affected by individual factors and some realistic environment before it is transformed into behavior of fertility,so studying the relationship between women's will of fertility and behavior of fertility can help to find important factors to increase the number of women actually having children,so we can put forward the corresponding encouraging measures to improve the fertility policy.This paper studies Chinese women's will of fertility and behavior of fertility through the hierarchical generalized linear models(HGLMs),and the relevant conclusions are as follows:(1)In addition to the general view that women's age and hukou nature will affect their actual number of children,women's education level,hope the number of boys,spouse intimacy cognition is positively related to “will>behavior”;Women's satisfaction with their spouse's domestic contribution,work,score of life happiness,and the idea of passing on generations are positively related to“will=behavior”and women who believe that maintenance has a greater impact on their behavior of fertility who tend to have children differently from their will in practice.(2)In addition to individual factors,the participation rate of maternity insurance in each province also has a significant impact on their fertility behavior;the number of boys expected by women and their satisfaction with their spouse's housework contribution have significant differences in different regions and different urban-rural population ratio;there are significant differences in the influence of work participation rate and the influence of child support on child-bearing behavior among different educational years of each province,the influence of the proportion of per capita consumption expenditure in disposable income on women's behavior of fertility is also significantly different due to the influence of women's score of life happiness and the degree to which fertility is influenced by the idea of passing on generations.