Research On Financial Crisis Early Warning Of Listed Companies In My Country's Auto Industry Based On Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

Chinese economy is rapidly developing.Because of the impact of world economic integration,Chinese automobile industry has risen rapidly.There are more and more uncertain factors in its production and operation process,making the possibility of financial crisis increasing.Therefore,the identification and prevention of financial crises are particularly important for the fast-growing and huge potential automotive industry.This article takes 84 listed companies as research objects,which are belong to Shanghai-Shenzhen A-share auto industry.Based on the financial crisis early warning theory,fuzzy mathematics and membership function theory,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is applied to the financial crisis early warning research.AHP weighting method and entropy-AHP weighting method are used in this article to construct financial crisis early warning models.This article provides a clear comparation of financial crisis early warning models under the two weighting methods.This article is divided into six parts.There are specific contents of each part.The first part is the introduction which systematically sorts out related researches on financial crisis early warnings at home and abroad.It also reviews the research literature,analyzes the shortcomings and problems that need to be resolved.The second part talks about key concepts and basic theories.This article explains the concepts of financial crisis and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.There is an introduction of the financial crisis early warning theory,fuzzy mathematics and the membership theory.The third part talks about current situations and the feasibility analysis of automotive industries.This article describes the current status of automotive industries and the current financial crisis of automotive industries.There is an explaination about the feasibility of using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to study the early warning of financial crisis in automotive industries.The fourth part is the design of empirical research.In this section,a financial crisis early-warning model is established.There is an explanation of the research object,the evaluation object setting,the evaluation factor setting,comment setting,and index weights.The CRIRTIC-AHP weighting method and the Entropy-AHP weighting method are used to construct the first-level and the second-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix.To establish two types of financial crisis early-warning models,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used.After calculating and comparing comprehensive evaluation results,it is found that the CRITIC-AHP weighting method is better than the Entropy-AHP weighting method,and the accuracy rate of the model reaches up to 77%.After calculating the accuracy rate of the model,the financial crisis evaluation level of listed companies in Chinese auto industry is calculated.The level of the financial crisis belongs to the moderate level.The fifth part is the test of warning models.Two models in this article are created based on the 2018 financial data.In this part,the financial data from June 2018 to June 2019 is selected which is used to test the validity of two financial crisis early warning models.The test results show that the prediction accuracy of these two types of financial crisis early-warning models is more than 71%.This result reflects that the financial crisis early-warning models constructed in this paper have significant prediction effects on listed companies in the automotive industry.The sixth part is research conclusions and suggestions of future researches.This part makes a conclusion of the empirical research and the financial crisis early-warning model,analyzes some deficiencies in this research,and suggestions of future researches.There are many innovations in this research in terms of empowerment methods and selections of the financial data.There is a clear introduction of specific innovations.First,this study uses the CRITIC-AHP method and the Entropy-AHP method to weight evaluation factors.There are a combination of subjective weighting methods and objective weighting methods when conduct financial crisis early warning models on listed companies in the automotive industry.This method not only fully considers the knowledge and experience of experts,but also avoids the shortcomings caused by large subjective arbitrariness.It makes the calculation of weights be more reasonable.The accuracy of financial crisis warning results is kept.Second,this study compares the impact of the CRITIC-AHP method and the Entropy-AHP method on the final predictive effect of the financial crisis early warning model.After using the subjective weighting method and objective weighting method,the CRITIC-AHP method is selected as a best method using in the early warning model of financial crisis,because of the accurate prediction.Third,in the selection of data,based on the semi-annual reports and annual reports of listed companies in the automotive industry for 2018,the financial data from June 2018 to June 2019 are selected and divided into 2018 and June 2018.Instead of selecting the 2018 annual report for the analysis of the financial status of the industry,selecting more financial data increases the frequency of data selection and makes more time-efficient.What's more,it is helpful to test the prediction accuracy of models and get a better financial crisis early warning model for listed companies in the automotive industry.