Reasonable Choice Of Financial Crisis Early Warning Method Of New Energy Automobile Listed Companies

In recent decades,environmental problems have become increasingly prominent.Under the guidance of national policies and the background of supply side structural reform,the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry is imperative.New energy vehicles are the breakthrough of the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry.The development of new energy automobile industry is faced with both opportunities and risks.The risks include both internal and external risks.Whether internal or external risks,which will have different degrees of financial consequences.The new energy vehicle industry is a new industry,facing higher financial risks,especially for the listed companies.A little carelessness may make the company face the risk of delisting,which leads to the occurrence of financial crisis.Therefore,the listed companies of new energy vehicle industry must pay enough attention to their financial crisis early warning problems,selecting appropriate financial crisis early warning methods,sending early warning signals to relevant stakeholders in time,so that operators take preventive measures in advance to prevent the financial crisis of enterprises,and make investors and creditors make correct decisions.This not only plays a key role in the virtuous cycle of the financial situation,but also promotes the sustainable and healthy development of the new energy automobile industry.The sample companies selected are listed companies in the new energy automobile industry.The theoretical framework of this paper is based on the theories of disequilibrium,option pricing model,contract,management and corporate strategy.This paper uses a combination of literature analysis,comparative analysis,normative research and empirical research methods to carry out it,from aspects of the literature review,relatedconcepts,theoretical basis,research samples and indicators of the selection of variables and empirical analysis.Firstly,excel is used to preprocess the financial data of the sample companies listed in the new energy vehicle industry,and then spss24.0 is used for empirical analysis.In the part of empirical analysis,first of all,we choose F-score model as an early-warning method to analyze the data of sample companies,judging the prediction accuracy of this early-warning method;then we choose logistic model to build a financial crisis early-warning model to analyze the sample companies,judging the early-warning accuracy of this model;finally,we compare and analyze the two early-warning methods listed companies in new energy automobile of the financial early warning,selecting the most suitable financial crisis early warning method according to the prediction accuracy and the early warning effect.Through the empirical analysis,the following conclusions are drawn: first,in the financial crisis early warning methods of new energy vehicle industry listed companies constructed by F model and logistic model,the logistic early warning method has the highest prediction accuracy in T-1,T-2,T-3 years and comprehensive prediction,and the best early warning effect;second,the two early warning methods have the highest prediction accuracy in T-1 year before financial crisis,and prediction accuracy is the lowest in T-3 years before before financial crisis;thirdly,these two financial crisis early warning methods are applicable to the financial crisis early warning research of new energy vehicle industry listed companies in T-1 and T-2 years,but the financial crisis early warning model constructed by logistic model is the most suitable financial crisis early warning method for new energy vehicle industry listed companies.