| Biodiversity is an important component of ecosystems and the basis of all ecosystem services,and the Tibetan Plateau region of China has two global biodiversity hotspots across it.Due to its special geographical location and complex environment,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region is the "driver" and "amplifier" of global climate change,which causes changes in species' habitats and leads to changes in endogenous biodiversity.This study is based on the latest study on the conservation of the Tibetan Plateau.In this study,we selected the three atmospheric circulation patterns and other environmental factors of Can ESM5,IPSL-CM6A-LR,and MRI-ESM2-0,which are well represented in the Tibetan Plateau region,from the latest list of protected plants and animals in China,and established a maximum entropy(Max Ent)model.The distribution patterns of protected species under four scenarios-sustainable development scenario(SSP1-2.6),moderate development scenario(SSP2-4.5),regional competitive development scenario(SSP3-7.0),and conventional development scenario(5-8.5)-were predicted and simulated for the current and future shared socio-economic pathways in the Tibetan Plateau region,and the integrated biodiversity distribution patterns were obtained through species distribution accumulation.The distribution pattern of biodiversity,study the spatial pattern of biodiversity of protected plants and animals and its quality,pattern and other changes under different current and future development scenarios,quantify the conservation efficiency under each scenario in the current conservation range;optimize the scope of the protected area while keeping the area of the protected area unchanged,and improve the conservation efficiency.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows.The current status of the overall national conservation biodiversity distribution pattern shows a trend of decreasing from southeast to northwest.The hotspot areas of various types of protected plants and animals do not overlap completely,and the overall distribution patterns of protected plants,birds and secondary protected mammals are similar.Although the hotspot areas do not overlap completely,the overall trends are roughly comparable,with low levels in the northwest and high levels in the southeast.The Grade I protected animals,on the other hand,showed a trend of spreading from the central part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to the outside.The distribution areas of protected flora and fauna on the Tibetan Plateau under the four current and future future climate change scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5)show different trends.the area served by the presence of biodiversity in the SSP1-2.6 scenario decreases by 0.34%,while the areas served by SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios increased by 0.02%,0.19% and 1.61%,respectively.Under the future climate change scenario,the biological hotspot area shows a decline,and the shrinking of the hotspot area is decreasing with the change of the scenario.Under the future shared economy pathway,the hotspot areas of biodiversity showed a shrinking trend,and the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 shrank by 8.61%,8.08%,7.08%,and 6.39%,respectively,relative to the current biodiversity hotspot areas.The center of mass of biodiversity moves to the southwest.the four shared economy scenario development paths move 80.9 km,87.6 km,87.9 km,and 98.7 km cumulatively in the next three stages,and the distance of the center of mass shifts to the southwest becomes smaller as the scenario model increases with the value of radiative forcing.The protection of the current planned protected area range is 26.23% efficient,which is obviously low and unstable,while the average protection efficiency of the optimized protected area has increased by nearly 7%.The current protected area efficiency of the optimized protected area reaches 32.23%,while the efficiency of the protected area under the four scenarios of the shared economic path also has different degrees of improvement.This paper clarifies the diversity pattern of protected organisms in Qinghai-Tibet under current and future climate change scenarios,quantifies the efficiency of protected areas,and attempts to optimize protected areas and improve their conservation efficiency.It provides reasonable and reliable suggestions for the subsequent construction of protected areas. |
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