Study On The Impact Of Population Mobility On Housing Market In Guangzhou

With the rapid economic development and the continuous improvement of the level of urbanization,the scale of population flow in China continues to increase.According to data from the seventh National census,the scale of population migration in China is as high as 376 million,accounting for 26.62% of the country’s total population.Population mobility has become an important factor affecting the development of urban housing market under the background of slowing down the natural growth rate of population,prominent aging problem and gradual disappearance of demographic dividend.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to grasp the interaction law of population flow and housing market and explore the difference of the impact of population flow on housing market in different regions,so as to guide the rational distribution of population and scientifically adjust and plan the strategic layout of real estate investment.Based on this,this paper explores the impact of population flow on the housing market by building a relationship model between population flow and housing market.Firstly,on the basis of combing and summarizing the relevant studies on population mobility and housing market,the spatial distribution pattern and evolution trend of population mobility,housing supply and demand and housing price in Guangzhou from 2006 to 2020 are analyzed by using the methods of standard deviation ellipse,center of gravity migration model and spatial autocorrelation analysis.Secondly,the intermediary effect model is used to empirically test the impact of population mobility on housing demand and the transmission mechanism among population mobility,housing demand and housing price.Thirdly,with the help of fixed effect model and spatial Dobbin model,this paper examines the impact of population mobility on housing prices and its spatial effects,and further uses the geographical weighted regression model to explore the impact of population mobility on housing prices in different regions.Finally,on the basis of summing up the research conclusions,it provides reference suggestions for guiding the rational and orderly distribution of population and ensuring the healthy and long-term development of the housing market.The study found that:（1）the population flow,housing supply and demand,housing prices in Guangzhou increased significantly,and the spatial distribution pattern was significantly different.The population flow is "northwest southeast" distribution,the spatial distribution pattern is expanding outward,and the scale of population flow in the northeast region has increased significantly;The distribution of housing supply and demand is "northeast southwest",and the regional housing supply and demand in the southeast have increased significantly;Housing prices are distributed from northeast to southwest.The housing prices in the southwest have increased significantly,and the spatial agglomeration effect has been enhanced,which has a significant spatial positive correlation.（2）Population mobility has a positive role in promoting housing demand.Population mobility can stimulate regional housing demand and then promote the rise of housing prices.There is a significant partial intermediary effect among the three.（3）Population mobility has a significant positive impact on housing prices,and there is an obvious spatial spillover effect.Population mobility in this region can help to raise housing prices and promote the rise of housing prices in surrounding regions through spatial spillover effect.Further analysis shows that there is significant regional heterogeneity in the impact of population mobility on housing prices.The impact of population mobility on housing prices is characterized by a spatial distribution of low in the middle and high around.（4）According to the research results,it is suggested that from the perspective of population flow,inter regional coordination and cooperation should be strengthened to keep the land supply consistent with the direction of population flow;Establish and improve a multi-level housing supply and security system to solve the multi-body housing problem;Promote coordinated regional development,guide the rational and orderly distribution of population,realize the benign interaction between population flow and housing market,and form a coordinated and green urban development pattern;By ensuring the right of the floating population to enjoy the same public services and social welfare,we can retain the required talents.