The Impact Of Highly Educated Floating Population On Residential Prices And Its Spatial Heterogeneity

Compared with the data of previous national censuses,the data from the seventh national population census further shows that the population mobility trend is significantly strengthened and the scale of floating population is further expanded in China.In this process,on the one hand,the massive population inflow in big cities has brought many impacts on urban development and people’s well-being;On the other hand,the massive outflow of population in small and medium-sized cities leads to the downturn of real estate market and economy.Since the implementation of urban housing system reform in China in 1998,our country entered officially the era of comprehensive marketization of commercial housing.Housing prices show generally an upward trend.But in the process,the gap between regional housing prices is too large and the rapid rise of housing prices has caused many people to bear huge economic pressure when buying houses.Although state and local governments have issued a series of price regulations and control policies,the rapid rise of house prices has not been improved.Based on the above analysis,it can be found that both population mobility and the rapid rise of regional house prices are major issues related to people’s happy life and regional economy.It can be seen that both the problem of population mobility and the rapid rise of regional housing prices are important issues related to the development of regional economy and macroeconomy development.Therefore,based on the perspective of highly educated floating population,this thesis will discuss the spatial heterogeneity of its impact on housing price.Using empirical evidence confirms the objective fact that highly educated floating population promotes the growth of urban house prices,which is conducive to providing new ideas for different cities to attract highly educated talents and regulate the excessive growth of urban house prices.This study includes mainly two aspects: First,studying the impact of the education level of floating population on housing prices,based mainly on the average education years of the floating population in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2011 to 2018,and using the panel data regression model(OLS)to explore influence of education level of floating population on house prices.This proves that the higher the education,the greater the role of promoting house prices;Then it further discusses the impact of floating population on house prices from the two dimensions of geographical origin and age structure,so as to further explore the impact of highly educated floating population on urban house prices.The second is to study the spatial heterogeneity of the impact of well-educated floating population on housing prices.Building a geographically weighted regression model(GWR)by using Arcgis10.8 to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of the impact of well-educated floating population on housing prices in 35 large and medium-sized cities.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The education level of floating population has a significant role in promoting the rise of urban house prices.After controlling other control variables,the average education years of the inflow population will increases by 6.05% every year.It shows that with the improvement of the education level of the inflow population,there is a significant role in promoting urban housing prices.(2)Different sources of highly educated floating population have different effects on urban house prices.Compared with the inter-provincial floating population,the highly educated floating population in the province has made greater efforts to promote the rise of housing prices.In general,when the floating population moves across provinces,the average education years will increase by 3.35% for each year,while the flow within the province will increase by 17.8%.(3)The highly educated floating population of different ages has different promoting effects on house prices.Among them,the highly educated floating population aged 27-37 plays the largest role in promoting house prices,followed by the highly educated floating population aged over 37,while the education level of the floating population aged under 27 is not related to house prices.With other conditions unchanged,the increase in the number of years of education for highly educated floating population aged 27-37 will increase urban house prices by 7.24% and 1.37% for those aged over 37.(4)Highly educated floating population has a positive impact on house prices and shows obvious spatial heterogeneity.According to the results of the geographically weighted regression model(GWR),it can be concluded that:(1)from the overall trend,the impact of highly educated floating population on house prices shows different fluctuations between adjacent years,and the fluctuation range is small.However,with the increase of the year,the impact of highly educated floating population on housing prices shows a gradual upward trend.(2)From the perspective of local cities in different regions,China’s highly educated floating population has a positive impact on housing prices in 35 cities from 2011 to 2018.Among them,the cities that most vulnerable to the impact of highly educated floating population on house prices are Guangdong and Shenzhen in the Pearl River Delta,Xiamen and Fuzhou in the southeast coast,and Shanghai,Hangzhou and Nanjing in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The impact in other regions is relatively small.(3)Among other control variables,per capita GDP,investment in real estate development,proportion of fiscal expenditure and land development cost all have positive impacts on house prices,but the impact on house prices is weaker than that of highly educated floating population.Based on the above conclusions,this thesis confirms the impact of highly educated floating population on house prices and its spatial heterogeneity through empirical research.Therefore,this thesis puts forward the following suggestions: First,pay attention to guiding the rational mobility of highly educated population and keep pace with the optimization of regional industrial structure;Second,regulate house prices by regions to curb the excessive growth of house prices;Third,improve the rental system,improve the housing rental system,and ensure the stability of the housing of highly educated floating population;Fourth,study the local actual situation according to local conditions,treat the symptoms and give solutions.