The Study On The Impact Of Industrial Robots On Manufacturing Employment

Technological progress not only brings inexhaustible power to the development of human civilization,but also imperceptibly affects employment.As a biased technological progress,industrial robot technology is widely used in manufacturing industry,and the resulting employment problem is worthy of attention.This paper studies the impact of industrial robots on China’s manufacturing employment,combined with the impact mechanism of technological progress on employment,analyzes the impact mechanism of industrial robots on manufacturing employment,constructs a variety of regression models for empirical test,summarizes the conclusions,and puts forward policy suggestions to deal with the impact of "machine replacement" caused by the intelligent transformation of China’s manufacturing industry.Using the data of industrial robots at the global industry level published by the International Federation of Robotics（IFR）,the study is conducted from multiple dimensions such as time,region and structure.The results show that: the installation quantity and density of industrial robots in China increased rapidly between 2008 and 2017;In the region,the installation density gradually decreases from east to west;The proportion of industrial robots installed in manufacturing sub sectors is shifting to high-tech industries year by year.The employment in manufacturing industry is divided into total employment and employment structure,and the action mechanism of industrial robots is discussed respectively.The results show that industrial robots inhibit employment by directly replacing labor and improving labor productivity with indirectly reducing the employment substitution effect of labor demand.Industrial robots also promote employment by expanding reproduction,extending the industrial chain and promoting the demand of skilled talents.The intensity comparison of the two effects determines whether the impact of industrial robots on the total employment will increase or decrease;On the one hand,the application of industrial robots promotes the unipolarization of manufacturing industry skill structure through skill structure effect.On the other hand,it promotes the upgrading of manufacturing industry structure through employment transfer effect.Using the panel data of 30 provinces in China,this paper empirically examine the impact of industrial robots on total employment and employment structure in manufacturing.The results show that: at present,industrial robots in China mainly have substitution effect on manufacturing employment;In terms of regional differences,industrial robots significantly reduce the manufacturing employment in the East,middle and West,and have no significant impact on the northeast.At the same time,the higher the installation density of industrial robots,the stronger the employment substitution effect;In terms of skill structure,industrial robots promote the employment of skilled labor force and inhibit the employment of unskilled labor force,forming a single polarization effect of employment;In terms of industry structure,industrial robots play a stronger role in replacing the employment of low and lower technology industries in the manufacturing industry,and significantly increase the employment share of medium and higher technology industries,which is conducive to the upgrading of the industry structure of the manufacturing industry;In addition,industrial robots have also significantly increased the employment of producer services outside the manufacturing industry and the employment share of high-end services,and promoted the structural upgrading of the service industry.Based on the above conclusions,the following policy suggestions are put forward:steadily promote the development and application of industrial robots in China,and implement the intelligent measures of manufacturing industry according to local conditions;Actively guide the development of higher education and vocational training,and promote the steady and high-quality employment of labor forces with different skills;Vigorously promote the development of tertiary industries such as service industry and strengthen the ability to absorb employment.