A Study On The Impact Of Divorce Rate On Housing Prices Under The "Restricted Purchase" Policy

The housing issue is a major issue that affects the vital interests of the people and a major livelihood issue that has caused widespread concern in the whole society.The report clearly pointed out that the party’s nineteen,“insisted that the house is used to live,not to stir the positioning.” On July 31,2018,the Politburo meeting again emphasized: “Determined to solve the real estate market problem,resolutely curb rising housing prices,accelerate the establishment of a mechanism to promote long-term stable and healthy development of the real estate market.” In order to control the housing price and establish a stable and healthy housing market,China has introduced a series of policies,and the "purchase restriction" policy is a new attempt.However,the effect of the “purchase restriction” policy is not satisfactory.The housing control policy linked to the household registration still gives some families a certain amount of space,but instead gives birth to the abnormal phenomenon of “false divorce”.As of the end of 2019,the number of divorce pairs in my country has exceeded 4,700,600,which has increased from 1,12,900 in 2000 to the present,which has nearly quadrupled.This will not only affect the lives of Chinese residents to a certain extent,but also not conducive to the smooth and healthy development of the housing market.If a couple divorce,on the one hand,it directly increases the housing market demand and promotes the rise of housing prices;on the other hand,because housing has investment properties,even if the state has introduced a "purchase restriction" policy to control the unreasonable soaring of housing prices,there will still be Many families use false divorce to obtain the opportunity to purchase a house to realize their own value increase,and this phenomenon has also promoted the growth of housing prices.Based on this,this article studies the impact of divorce rate on housing prices in the context of the "purchase restriction" policy.Firstly,it sorts out the measurement and measurement methods of divorce rate in detail;then analyzes the relevant theories of market demand in depth,and analyzes the mechanism of divorce rate on housing prices through demand channels and investment channels;further sorts out and summarizes the divorce rate and housing prices in China The current status,development trend and changes of the “purchase restriction” policy,etc.;based on the previous theoretical analysis and summary of the current situation,Chapter 4 of this article selects 33 large and medium cities in my country,and the research data uses the 2000-2019 panel Data and research methods choose the PSM-DID model to conduct an empirical test on how the divorce rate affects the housing prices under the "purchase restriction" policy.At the same time,three different robustness test methods were used to verify the results.The empirical results show that from the point of "restricted" policy implementation effect,the current "restricted purchases" policy has not been as expected,instead is presented to promote housing prices trend.From the housing price perspective,the divorce rate has a significant positive impact on housing prices after the implementation of the "restricted purchase" policy.Finally,based on the above conclusions,and considering factors such as marriage,this article puts forward reasonable suggestions for real estate market regulation.