| Food security is the top priority of the national economy and people’s livelihood.The No.1 central document in 2021 pointed out that we should further promote the structural reform of the agricultural supply side,stabilize the sown area of grain,and achieve the target task of grain output of 650 billion kg,so as to continuously improve China’s ability to guarantee food supply.At present,in order to achieve the goals and tasks,the most important task is to strengthen the development of functional grain zones,ensure grain subsidies for farmers,and continue to implement the effective minimum purchase price policy for rice and wheat and the subsidy policy for corn producers.As China’s urbanization strategy accelerates,labor transfer accelerates,resulting in a shortage of rural labor,rising prices and a decline in grain output.Labor is one of the basic input factors of food production.The rising labor price makes the labor cost of food production continue to rise,which seriously affects the food security of our country,which has aroused wide attention of scholars.Scholars from the perspective of labor price rise this paper discusses the current situation of the overall situation of China’s food security and transformation,using the theory of farmer behavior theory,theory of resources endowment and induced technological change,According to the planting scale of different farmers,this paper measures the influencing factors of farmers’ total factor productivity of grain,and conducts regional heterogeneity analysis.At the same time,the behavior of farmers is studied from the micro level,and the agricultural production decisions made by farmers are discussed in the face of the situation of the increasing labor force.It is found that in the face of rising labor costs,farmers have two choices.One is to replace the labor force by increasing the input of fertilizers,pesticides,machinery and other agricultural production factors to improve labor productivity and reduce agricultural production costs.The second is to carry out product substitution,adjust the agricultural planting structure,increase the planting area and proportion of crops with less labor input and high degree of mechanical substitution,in order to obtain higher economic benefits.Based on inter-provincial panel data,this paper analyzes the current situation of labor cost and grain production in China,and discusses the differences of the impact of labor cost changes on grain production in different regions.On this basis,relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to provide scientific basis for the government to formulate and improve relevant policies,improve grain production capacity,and promote the sustainable development of grain production in China.Firstly,This paper selected the three major grain crops(rice,wheat,corn),Put forward the theoretical hypothesis that the change of labor cost affects grain production,Based on the panel data of 25 provinces in the functional areas of grain(major grain producing\marketing\balanced areas),the theoretical models of the impact of labor cost on grain production are constructed,including: farmer behavior theory,induced technological innovation theory,dual economy and Lewis inflection point,and cost-benefit theory.And expounds the rural labor cost,agricultural production factors,food production and other related concepts.Secondly,through the introduction of China’s labor cost changes and grain production data sources,this paper analyzes the trend of labor cost changes and grain production changes in the main grain producing areas,main marketing areas and production-sales balance areas,To clarify the changing trend of labor factor endowment and the current situation of grain production in each functional area of grain in China,to clarify the changing trend of labor factor endown--ment and the current situation of grain production in each functional area of grain pro--duction in China.Then,based on the provincial panel data in different regions,the influence of labor cost change on grain production in China was tested by using econometric model,and the influence of labor cost change on grain sown area and its proportion in the total sown area of crops was tested empirically,and the explained variables were replaced by grain yield and its proportion in the total output of major crops for robustness test.Based on the above empirical test results,this paper finds that there are great differences in the changing trends of labor cost,grain sown area and grain yield and their proportions in the three major grain functional zones in China.The labor cost of balance area is obviously higher than that of main producing area and main selling area.The area sown to grain and its proportion in the major grain-producing areas far exceeded the main marketing area,the balance area,occupies the dominant position;The grain output of the main grain producing areas is much higher than that of the main grain marketing areas and the balanced grain producing areas,and has continued to increase since 2004.On the contrary,the grain output and its proportion in the main grain producing areas continued to decline,while the grain output and its proportion in the balanced areas increased,with a rate of increase much lower than that in the main grain producing areas,but slightly higher than that in the main grain marketing areas.The rural labor price had a significant negative impact on the sown area and its proportion of grain,and showed regional heterogeneity.The rural labor price had the largest impact on the sown area and its proportion of grain in the grain balanced area,followed by the main producing area and the least impact on the main marketing area.Based on the conclusions,this paper puts forward the following suggestions to cope with the adverse effects of rising labor costs on grain production:(1)Promote the transfer of labor force to achieve scale management.(2)Strengthen cooperation between different functional areas to complement each other’s advantages.(3)Innovate agricultural machinery to improve farmers’ scientific and technological quality.(4)To tap the potential of cultivated land and improve the efficiency of grain production.(5)Accurate fiscal assistance to improve the overall strength of rural areas. |
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