Research On The Spatial Imbalance And Influencing Factors Of Population Aging In Urban And Rural Areas

Clarifying the development trend of population aging is an important link in actively responding to population aging and realizing coordinated regional development.In this paper,based on the 1998-2019 urban and rural population age composition data of 31 provinces in China,methods such as geographic information system,Theil index,and polarization index are used to characterize the imbalanced characteristics of China’s urban and rural population aging.Furthermore,a panel regression model and a spatial Dubin model are established to explore the factors affecting urban and rural aging.Research indicates:(1)The size and proportion of the elderly population in urban and rural areas are showing an upward trend.The aging degree and speed of the rural population are higher than those in the urban areas,and there is regional imbalance in the aging development of urban and rural population.(2)The difference in population aging between urban and rural areas continues to rise.Before 2006,the difference between urban areas was higher than that in rural areas,and the opposite was the case after 2006.Differences within groups are the main source of differences between urban and rural areas,and differences within groups in the east contribute the most to differences in urban areas.Differences within the western group contribute the most to differences in rural areas.(3)The degree of polarization of urban and rural aging is on the rise,and the degree of spatial polarization of rural population aging is significantly higher than that of urban population.In recent years,the distribution of urban and rural population aging has shown a tendency of polarization.(4)Per capita GDP,death rate,illiteracy rate and per capita education years have a positive impact on the aging of the urban population,and the level of medical care has a negative effect on it.Per capita GDP,urbanization rate,death rate and medical level have a positive effect on the aging of the rural population,while the birth rate has a negative effect on it.There are differences in the influencing factors of urban and rural aging in different regions.Per capita GDP,birth rate,death rate and medical level have spatial spillover effects on the aging of urban and rural population.Finally,based on the above conclusions,some policy suggestions are put forward for the coordinated development of China’s urban and rural population from three perspectives,those are actively development aging industries,coordinating the balanced development of urban and rural areas,and formulating differentiated population policies.