| ObjectiveThis study aimed to display the trend and process of the population aging and to explore the spatial distribution pattern and influencing factors of population aging in China based on statistical yearbook data from 2000 to 2015 in China.The purpose of this study is to enrich the research about the population aging in China and to provide a scientific reference for the related departments to formulate population policies.MethodsThe initial data in this study was from the statistical yearbook from 2000 to 2015 in China.We established databases by Excel,Stata,and ArcGIS for the corresponding analysis.ArcGIS 12.0 was used to map the spatial distribution of the elderly population and explore spatial autocorrelation of population aging.Panel data model was fitted to explore the influencing factors of population aging by Stata 12.1.Results1.China was in the status of population aging in the year of 2000.From 2000 to 2015,the relative and absolute levels of the population aging had been increasing.The coefficient of the population aging rose from 7%to 10.5%,and the number of the elderly increased from 88.21 million to about 144 million.2.The number of provinces in the status of population aging increased from 12 to 30.The top 3 provinces with higher level of population aging was Shanghai(11.53%),Zhejiang(8.84%),Jiangsu(8.76%)in 2000 and Chongqing(13.29%),Sichuan(12.94%),Liaoning(12.87%)in 2015.The process of the population aging in all provinces(municipalities)accelerated.Heilongjiang(TAi(65+)=0.046),Gansu(TAi(65+)=0.042)and Jilin(TAi(65+)=0.042)were the leading 3 provinces in the aspect of process of the population aging.While Shanghai(TAi(65+)=0.007),Guangdong(TAi(65+)=0.013)and Tianjin(TAi(65+)=0.014)were the last 3 provinces from the angel of process of the population aging.3.From the level of the population aging by 4 cross-sectional surveys,"high-medium-low" from east to west was observed,while Sichuan and Chongqing in the southwest of China was the "jumping" zone because of the highest level of the population aging compared with the neighboring provinces.From the time-spatial evolutional trends,the population aging in China showed the progressive pattern of"Eastern-Central-Western" in space.4.The population aging in China presented spatial cluster phenomenon(2000:Moran's I-0.3943;2005:Moran's I=0.2950;2010:Moran's I=0.2590;2015:Moran's I=0.2700,P<0.05 of all).Xinjiang and Tibet were low-low clusters,Shanghai,Jiangsu,and Chongqing were high-high clusters.5.The birth rate(?=-0.796,P=0.001),per capita GDP(?=0.121,P<0.001),illiteracy rate(?=0.865,P<0.001),and the number of beds per 1000 persons in health institutions(?=0.613,P<0.001)were influencing factors of the population aging in China.We did not find that mortality and population density impact the level of the aging population in China.Conclusions1.The level and spatial distribution scope of population aging increased steadily.The economically developed coastal cities,including Zhejiang,Shanghai,Jiangsu,and Chongqing in the southwestern have a high level of the population aging and indicate the pattern of high-high cluster.So we should pay more attention to high-high clusters while controlling the level and process of the population aging in China.2.The per capita GDP,the illiteracy rate and number of beds per thousand persons in health institutions have positive influence on population aging,while birth rate have negative influence on the population aging.Raising the birth rate may be an effective way to control the level of population aging under the situation of rapid development of economic and medical level in our nation. |
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