| With the rapid development of urbanization and under the new economic normal where structural reforms are becoming heavier,the problem of population shrinkage and lagging development in some small and medium-sized cities and regions in China has become more and more serious.The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that it is necessary to “build a coordinated development of large,medium and small cities and small towns with urban agglomerations as the main body.”Under the background of building a modern economic system,speeding up the sustainable development of county-level small cities is a new type of The only way to a successful urbanization strategy.The three northeastern provinces are China’s geographic regions and old industrial bases.They were once the “eldest sons of the Republic”.In recent years,there have been urban shrinkage characterized by population decline and economic slowdown.This requires attention.This article focuses on the identification of the county population shrinkage in the three northeastern provinces,the analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics,and the decision mechanism of the county population shrinkage.Based on the panel data of 143 counties in the three northeastern provinces from 2002 to 2018,first,on the basis of determining the quantitative method of the county population shrinkage in the three northeastern provinces,To identify the population shrinking counties;secondly,analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of the population shrinking counties in different time periods;thirdly,explore the decision mechanism of the population shrinkage of the three northeastern provinces;again,use the multi-period double difference method for empirical testing The impact of the opening of the high-speed rail on the population shrinkage of the three northeastern provinces and counties,and on the basis of general analysis,divide the counties of the three northeastern provinces into counties and county-level cities to investigate the impact of the opening of the high-speed rail on the population shrinkage of the counties of different administrative levels;then,explore separately The impact of the establishment of county-level cities,poverty-stricken counties,and resource-based cities on the population shrinkage of counties in the three northeastern provinces is discussed.Finally,conclusions and policy recommendations are drawn based on the above research.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The population shrinkage of the three provinces and counties in Northeast China has experienced labor shrinkage,urban population shrinkage,and total population shrinkage in three stages.(2)The shrinkage phenomenon in the labor dimension is relatively in the period 2002-2008.Seriously,the shrinkage of the total population and urban population began to appear on a large scale in counties after 2008,and the shrinkage in the labor dimension occurred earlier than the shrinkage in the total and urban population dimensions.Compared with Liaoning Province,Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province shrink more prominently.(3)In terms of total population,urban population,and labor force,the shrinkage of county population is mainly concentrated in areas with slow economic development and harsh natural conditions.In addition,counties around prefecture-level cities with better economic development are also shrinking.(4)Human capital,social investment level,urbanization level,and medical service level have a significant negative impact on the population shrinkage of northeastern counties,and the degree of government intervention has a significant positive impact on the population shrinkage of counties in the three northeastern provinces.(5)The opening of the high-speed rail will accelerate the population shrinkage of the counties in the three northeastern provinces,and the opening of the high-speed rail will have a heterogeneous effect on the population shrinkage of the counties in the northeast.Compared with the county-level cities,the county-level shrinkage will be deeper;The population shrinkage is faster than that of counties without county-level cities;the population shrinkage of poor counties is faster;resource-based cities have a positive impact on the county population shrinkage of the three northeastern provinces,but it is not significant.Combining the above research conclusions,this article proposes the following: First,pay attention to the shrinkage of counties in the three provinces of Northeast China,and realize the transformation from irrational shrinkage to smart shrinkage.Secondly,pay attention to the problem of human capital loss.The counties of the three northeast provinces should develop their own advantages to attract the inflow of high-quality production factors.Third,each county should promote the construction of high-speed rail in accordance with local conditions.On the basis of adhering to the general direction of high-speed railway planning and construction,different counties cannot be generalized.Finally,improve the level of county public service and improve the social security system. |
