Study On Identification,Temporal And Spatial Evolution And Driving Factors Of Regional Population Shrinkage In Sichuan Province

In recent years,with the continuous improvement of urbanization,population migration is common.Sichuan Province,as a province with prominent population loss in southwest China,has experienced different degrees of shrinking population in cities,and its driving factors are significantly different from those in northeast China.It is of theoretical and practical significance to study the spatial pattern and driving factors of cities with shrinking population in Sichuan Province.In this paper,the census data of2000,2010 and 2020 are selected,and the methods of geo-spatial analysis and mathematical statistical analysis are used to identify the cities with shrinking population in Sichuan Province,and its spatial pattern and driving factors are analyzed.With the help of the field strength model,the urban attraction and the urban attraction range are calculated and divided,the deeper driving factors are analyzed,and targeted optimization strategies and suggestions are put forward.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The number of cities with shrinking population at the county level in Sichuan province from 2000 to 2010 and from 2010 to 2020 was 77 and 95 respectively,with obvious increase in number and obvious population shrinkage in some prefectures and cities.From the analysis of the characteristics of cities with shrinking population,the number of cities with moderate and severe shrinking population increased obviously,and only 47 cities with sustained population growth,and 109 cities experienced different degrees of population shrinkage.(2)The cities with population growth in Sichuan Province are concentrated in provincial,prefecture and municipal administrative centers and provincial boundary areas,while the cities with shrinking population are concentrated in northeast Sichuan,Chengdu Plain and south Sichuan.Through the standard deviation ellipse description analysis,cities with the population growth did not show obvious distribution direction,while the cities with shrinking population were located in the northeast-southwest direction,and the direction became more and more obvious.At the same time,based on the urban analysis of population change,the spatial pattern of "population growth in core citiespopulation shrinking in edge cities" is formed by population growth and cities with shrinking population,and its scope is becoming more and more obvious.(3)The cities with shrinking population in Sichuan Province have direct influence on population growth rate,geographical factors,economic factors,social factors and traffic factors.Through the analysis of the population growth rate,it is found that the natural population growth rate does not show zero growth and negative growth,while the migration of population in Sichuan Province is the main trend,and the population loss in cities with shrinking population is serious,and the trend of "one trade-off and the other trade-off" is formed.Secondly,the cities with shrinking population are basically distributed in Sichuan Basin and its marginal areas,and have a certain correlation with urban development resources.Through linear regression analysis,it is found that economic factors and social factors have certain characteristics of temporal and spatial evolution.Finally,through the analysis of traffic factors,it is found that cities with shrinking population are basically concentrated in the four-hour traffic circle,and with the continuous development of traffic level,the scope of cities with shrinking population is becoming wider and wider,and the number is increasing.(4)Based on the changes of urban attraction range and population,this paper sums up four types of cities: competitive cities with shrinking population,marginal p cities with shrinking population,competitive population growing cities and population growing cities with shrinking attraction range,and analyzes their driving factors,temporal and spatial evolution and circle structure respectively.Among them,during the period from2000 to 2010 and from 2010 to 2020,there were 35 and 54 competitive cities with shrinking population,most of which were third-class cities,and the number increased obviously.Its driving factors were influenced by provincial and prefecture-level administrative centers with close spatial distance,and the attraction force and attraction range were too large,which led to the shrinking attraction range of competitive cities and the population flowing to core cities.There are 42 and 41 marginal cities with shrinking population,among which the proportion of secondary cities is increasing.Its driving factors are social and economic development due to certain economic ties with core cities.However,the attraction range of core cities is increased and the population shrinks due to too much attraction or too little attraction of marginal cities.(5)Based on the research conclusions,the following suggestions are put forward:First,at the regional level,a more reasonable urban system and regional coordinated development strategy should be built to reduce the influence of "siphon effect".At the same time,cities with shrinking population should define their development orientation,actively undertake some industries in core cities,reduce competition among cities,and form industrial chains and industrial ecosystems with other cities.Second,improve the attractiveness of the city and implement the talent policy.Improve the livability and sustainability of cities and increase the "soft power" of cities.Actively introduce the talent policy,and implement the floating population’s schooling,medical treatment and other issues.Finally,cities with shrinking population should change their development strategies.For cities that are hard to avoid shrinking population,smart shrinkage and compact cities should be adopted to improve urban vitality and reconstruct urban space.