Research On The Effect Of Population Aging On Economic Growth In Jiangsu Province

The population aging is a concern of the society.The problem of population aging in Jiangsu Province is prominent.The population aging rate is higher than the national average.It entered an aging society in 1986,and the population aging is deepening.The problem of population aging is not only a social one but also an economic one.If handled improperly,it will have negative effect on economic growth.Studying the problem of population aging and the effect of population aging on economic growth in Jiangsu Province are of great importance to deepen the understanding of population aging.We should make adequate preparations before the peak of population aging in Jiangsu Province,which can help us minimize the negative effect of population aging on economic growth and use the opportunity brought by the aging population to find new economic growth points.Firstly,the paper analyses the current situation of population aging in Jiangsu by collecting and sorting data from Jiangsu census and spot checks.The paper finds that Jiangsu has a large number of old people,serious aging population,rapid development of aging population and large regional differences.The basic characteristics of the old in Jiangsu analyzed by the 2015 Population Census of 1% sample includes gender composition,educational level,marital status,health and primary source of living.Secondly,the paper forecasts the trend of aging population in Jiangsu.The paper sets low,medium and high fertility programs based on the results of Equal Dimension Gray prediction and the adjustment of the fertility policy in Jiangsu.The trend is forecasted by the Leslie matrix equation.The paper finds that in the future the level of aging population in Jiangsu is high,the development of aging population is rapid.The paper also finds that aging population in Jiangsu in the future has different periods: it rises smoothly in 2015 to 2026,rapidly in 2027-2035 and stabilizes after 2036.The paper also finds that the old are advanced in years.The paper focuses on the effect of population aging on economic growth in Jiangsu Province.Firstly,the paper puts aging factor and human capital factor into the Douglas production function model.Through the mathematical derivation,we can get the equilibrium path of per capita output expressions and construct the theoretical model of the effect of population aging on economic growth,which finds that population aging has negative effect on economic growth.Secondly the paper selects variables to construct the empirical model in Jiangsu Province.The model is analyzed by regression of ordinary least squares and ridge regression.The paper uses the effect of working-age population and the total dependency ratio on economic growth to reflect the effect of population aging on economic growth.The empirical model finds that population aging has negative effect on economic growth in Jiangsu Province.It also finds that the sum of the natural population growth rate and the rate of capital depreciation have negative effect on economic growth,the technology level,human capital and savings have positive effect on economic growth and human capital has more effects on economic growth.In order to avoid the impact of arbitrarily choosing the capital depreciation rate on the model parameters,this paper also tests the sensitivity of the model,the result shows that the higher the value of the rate of depreciation of the capital,the greater the impact of the population aging on economic growth.Lastly,the paper puts forward some suggestions on how to alleviate the effect of population aging on economic growth in Jiangsu Province.The suggestions are as follows: adjust the birth policy reasonably;utilize the resources of the old;develop the aging industry actively;increase investment in human capital;promote the progress of science and technology;set the rate of depreciation of capital reasonably.