An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Population Aging And Economic Growth On Pension Insurance Expenditure

Population aging is a major challenge facing many countries and regions,and Hubei Province is no exception.In order to make the pension insurance expenditure sustainable and smoothly cope with the long-term population aging problem,this paper analyzes the current situation of population aging,economic growth and pension insurance expenditure in Hubei Province.Secondly,using the relevant data of population aging,economic growth and pension insurance expenditure from 2001 to2021,an econometric model was constructed to explore the impact of the two variables of population aging and economic growth on pension insurance expenditure and draw conclusions.Finally,based on the previous conclusions,corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.The empirical results show that:(1)the long-term elasticity coefficient of LnGDP to LnY is 1.18,which indicates that when Hubei Province’s GDP increases by 1%,Hubei Province’s basic endowment insurance expenditure will increase by 1.18%;The long-term elasticity coefficient of LnODR to LnY is 4.93,which indicates that when the dependency ratio of the elderly population in Hubei Province increases by 1%,the basic pension insurance expenditure in Hubei Province will increase by 4.93%.(2)It can be seen from the model simulation results that without considering the impact of economic growth,each percentage increase in the dependency ratio of the elderly population will increase the pension insurance expenditure by about 2.5 percentage points.According to the regression model,without considering the aging of the population,every percentage point increase in GDP will promote an increase in pension insurance expenditure by about 0.64 percentage points.The research conclusions show that:(1)the impact of population aging and economic growth on pension insurance expenditure is significant,and the relationship between the three is balanced for a long time;(2)The results of the Granger causal test showed that population aging and economic growth were the Grainger causes of pension insurance expenditure,respectively;The increase in pension insurance spending is not the reason for both.At the same time,there is no Granger reason between the two explanatory variables;(3)There is a positive correlation between population aging,economic growth and pension insurance expenditure.In view of the research conclusions of this paper,the following policy suggestions are put forward from the two aspects of open source and cost reduction of pension funds:(1)build a multi-level endowment insurance system;(2)Strengthen the overall supervision of pensions and improve the efficiency of pension insurance expenditure;(3)Improve and innovate fertility support policies;(4)Actively implement the national overall planning of endowment insurance.