| Human capital is an important concept in multidisciplinary research such as demography,economics,management,etc.Because of its high output elasticity for economic and social development,since Schultz proposed this concept,human capital Conducted extensive research.Because human capital has the characteristics of being easy to define and difficult to measure,although there are many literatures on human capital measurement research,it is still a difficult problem so far.Taken together,on the one hand,the measurement methods for human capital are mostly linear studies from an economic perspective,but the factors that affect human capital are multiple,and the relationship between these factors and human capital is not all "linear".Often,it is high-level complex;on the other hand,for the estimation and prediction of China’s human capital level,most of the existing research is also achieved through static statistical models,lacking systematic and dynamic research.From the perspective of a real system,human capital,population,and economy are interconnected and interact with each other.The three together form a complex system,and each system is affected by other subsystems.The subsystem completes its own changes in the feedback process.Therefore,the changes and calculations of human capital must consider the dynamic impact of population and economic systems.After clarifying the development mechanism of human capital,different policy levels are measured from a system perspective Next,the level of human capital in China is simulated and predicted at the same time.This is of great research significance at a time when the phenomenon of aging of young children is becoming more prominent and the traditional demographic dividend is gradually declining.Based on the above content,this paper builds a system dynamics simulation model covering three subsystems of human capital,total population and economy,which is different from the static research characteristics of linear statistics,collects and organizes more complete indicators of human capital,economy and population system The system,through the establishment of a loop feedback system mechanism,build a dynamic development model of human capital,through the introduction of future population forecast data released by the United Nations,to examine the future development trend of human capital in China under the three high,medium and low birth rate programs.The research results show that the system dynamics model constructed in this paper is robust.The simulation results of the model show that human capital is closely related to the birth rate,but the development level of human capital depends on the synergy of the total population and the economic system.Since my country’s fertility level is difficult to improve in a short period of time,it is possible to make full use of existing human capital through industrial upgrading,optimizing human resource allocation,and increasing employment positions.In the future,my country should adopt corresponding policy measures to alleviate the pressure of women’s child-rearing,increase the investment in education,and promote the realization of a “double rise” in fertility and human capital. |
