The Influence Of Population Agglomeration On Economic Growth In Western Provincial Capitals

Since the reform and opening up more than 40 years ago,China’s economy has developed rapidly.China’s per capita GDP has continued to rise,and China has changed from a low-income country to a middle-income country.At the same time,China’s urbanization level is also rising rapidly,and the phenomenon of population migration to cities is more and more obvious.Demography,economics and geography are also paying more and more attention to population agglomeration.Since 2012,China’s supply-side structural reform has been further advanced.The introduction of the "the Belt and Road Initiative" has not only promoted the economic development of the regions along the routes,but also brought new vitality to the relatively backward western regions.In 2017,China’s major cities took turns in the "Talent acquisition strategy" and launched a series of preferential policies to attract talents according to the development needs of each city.In 2019,China will further relax its household registration policy for the population,which will facilitate population mobility and agglomeration.Under the background of "the Belt and Road Initiative",Talent acquisition strategy " and increasingly loose settlement policy,provincial capitals in the western region,as the political,economic,scientific,educational,cultural and health centers of a province,as well as the core nodes in the urban system of the province,are more likely to form population agglomeration.Therefore,under this background,it is of certain theoretical and practical significance to study the influence of population agglomeration in western provincial capitals on economic growth.This paper takes the influence of population agglomeration of provincial capital cities in western China on economic growth as the research objective.First,it describes and analyzes the current situation of population agglomeration and economic growth in provincial capital cities in western China,and describes the current situation of population agglomeration through JJD index.Secondly,through fixed-effect regression and sys GMM regression,this paper empirically analyzed the direction and effect of population agglomeration on economic growth in western provincial capitals,and introduced moderator variable to verify the mechanism of population agglomeration affecting economic growth in theoretical analysis.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: based on the analysis of the current situation,it can be found that: first,the population of provincial capitals in western China has obvious agglomeration characteristics,but the agglomeration degree of provincial capitals is quite different;The classification of population agglomeration degree changed little.Second,the total GDP and per capita GDP basically show an increasing trend,but the ranking situation of provincial capitals has changed to some extent.The GDP growth rate of provincial capitals was basically positive in major years,while only Huhehaote’s GDP growth rate was negative in 2017.According to the results of fixed-effect regression and sys GMM regression,population agglomeration of provincial capitals in western China can significantly promote economic growth.In order to further clarify the population agglomeration effect mechanism of economic growth,by introducing the moderator variable,found that the urbanization level,industrial structure and human capital stock level regulating effect on economic growth is positive,the western region’s population in the process of gathering,by raising the urbanization level,improving industrial structure and improve the level of human capital stock,promoting the economic growth.Finally,according to the results of empirical analysis,the author proposes to relax the settlement policy to promote population agglomeration.Improving the carrying capacity of urban population;Improving the industrial structure;Formulate the strategy of talent introduction and other countermeasures and suggestions.