| The “14th Five-Year Plan” period is a critical stage for China to move from building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way to the second centenary goal.In response to changes in the situation,the Party Central Committee proposed to promote domestic and international dual-cycle development,and emphasized the promotion of long-term balanced population growth.Population is not only the starting point and foothold for realizing dual-cycle development,but also the greatest potential for tapping domestic demand.Therefore,the problem of population aging caused by the birth rate and the death rate will inevitably affect the dual-cycle development of the region in an all-round,multi-scale and multi-level manner.Under the background of the new era,how to actively respond to the problem of population aging and promote the development of regional dual circulation has become an important issue to be solved urgently.Based on the theoretical perspective,on the basis of defining the two key variables of population aging and dual-cycle development performance,this paper focuses on the theory of population transition,life cycle theory,economic growth theory,and economic development of major countries.According to which,the internal theoretical connection of cyclic development is analyzed,and research hypotheses are put forward.Secondly,based on the profound connotation of the new dual-cycle development pattern,a comprehensive evaluation index system for dual-cycle development is constructed,and the improved CRITIC-entropy weight method combined weighted TOPSIS model is used to systematically evaluate the dual-cycle development performance of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2018.Calculate,and further summarize and analyze the temporal and spatial evolution trends of population aging and dual-cycle development performance in China’s provinces.Finally,based on theoretical analysis combined with models such as panel regression,mediation effect,and spatial econometrics,we empirically test the impact of population aging on dual-cycle development performance.The main conclusions include:（1）According to the results of population aging calculated by the two methods,since2003,the aging of my country’s population age structure has developed rapidly,completing the transition from an initial aging society to a deep aging stage;from the regional perspective,there is a large regional heterogeneity in the aging of the population,that is,the eastern region entered the aging society at the earliest and the degree is relatively deep,but with the passage of time,the gap with other regions has gradually narrowed;the central and western regions have maintained a stable Growth trend,the degree of population aging lags behind the eastern and northeastern regions;although the northeastern region entered an aging society relatively late,the rapid aging process has made it successfully surpass the other three regions and become the "oldest" in my country’s age structure.area.（2）On the whole,from 2003 to 2018,Chinese dual-cycle development performance has achieved significant improvement,but the growth rates between provinces are different,resulting in significant spatial differences,which shows a decreasing distribution pattern from the east to the middle,northeast and west;the dual-cycle development performance has the characteristics of spatial agglomeration,the high-value areas are mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas or economically developed areas,while the low-value areas are mainly concentrated in the northwest and part of the southwest,and the high value areas are mainly distributed in the northwest and part of the southwest area,and the Value areas accelerate inland expansion.（3）The measurement results show that population aging has a significant inhibitory effect on the regional dual-cycle development performance,and the intensity of the effect is closely related to the regional economic development level,digitalization level,marketization degree,financial development level and urban-rural income gap;Population aging mainly affects the regional dual-cycle development performance indirectly by affecting factors such as labor supply,consumption level,savings level,technological innovation,human capital accumulation,and industrial structure transformation and upgrading;the impact of population aging on dual-cycle development performance is significant.The characteristics of regional heterogeneity and temporal heterogeneity are the characteristics of regional heterogeneity and temporal heterogeneity;there is a positive spatial autocorrelation in the dual-cycle development performance,and the improvement of the dual-cycle development performance level in the spatially related regions has a significant role in promoting the dual-cycle development performance in the region.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: speed up the implementation of the three-child birth policy advocated by the state,stimulate the fertility potential and promote the long-term balanced development of the population;optimize the population development policy,fully tap the second dividend of the population,accelerate the improvement of regional innovation capabilities,and promote industrial development.Structural transformation and upgrading,changing the driving force of economic growth;improve the comprehensive evaluation index system of dual-cycle development performance,establish and improve the dual-cycle development performance appraisal mechanism,and effectively enhance the consciousness of regional dual-cycle development;based on the regional linkage characteristics of dual-cycle development,improve regional exchanges and trade-related laws and regulations,accelerate inter-regional exchanges and cooperation,promote regional integrated development,and formulate differentiated dual-cycle development policies based on the actual situation in the central and western regions,and accelerate the improvement of the performance level of dual-cycle development in the central and western regions. |
