Study On Risk Assessment Of Major Public Health Emergencies In Urban Areas ——Based On Analysis Of COVID-19 Outbreaks

Risk assessment of major public health emergencies refers to the assessment method based on the risk assessment index system.The objects to be assessed are major infectious diseases that cause serious casualties and economic losses and seriously endanger public life and health safety,as well as mass epidemic diseases with unknown causes.The assessment provides a basis for formulating reasonable and effective risk avoidance measures.At the end of 2019,the COVID-19 epidemic broke out in Wuhan,China,and gradually spread across the whole country .The pneumonia epidemic has seriously affected the health,economy and society of citizens.Taking the COVID-19 epidemic as the background and taking cities as the unit,this paper mainly studied the urban risk assessment and risk evolution during the outbreak of large-scale infectious diseases based on the crisis life cycle theory,which to some extent can help the government and its departments to formulate more targeted,professional and effective risk avoidance measures when dealing with the large-scale outbreak of major public health emergencies.Based on the existing research basis,this paper focuses on the following scientific problems and decision-making dilemmas: in the event of large-scale outbreak of major public health emergencies in urban systems,how should managers define the risk levels among cities and analyze the evolution rules based on the evaluation results? What factors account for the difference in risk levels between cities? In this paper,the COVID-19 epidemic is taken as a realistic background to study the risk assessment and evolution of major public health emergencies in large-scale outbreaks.Firstly,the logical framework and index system of risk assessment of major public health emergencies are constructed,and the weight of indexes is determined.Secondly,based on the evaluation index system,a risk assessment model was constructed to calculate the superimposed risk values of urban epidemics and analyze the risk levels and evolution paths of urban epidemics.Thirdly,taking Hubei Province as an example,the risk assessment model of large-scale outbreak of major public health emergencies was applied to the risk assessment problem of large-scale outbreak of COVID-19 in 17 cities of Hubei Province,and the development stages of the epidemic were summarized based on the crisis life cycle theory to test the applicability of the model and reality.Fourthly,based on the existing data of cities,the paper explores the influencing factors of risk differences among cities.Fifth,based on the assessment results of evolution,the government proposed universal urban epidemic risk control measures from the perspective of the government,providing theoretical reference for the government to evaluate the risk of large-scale outbreak of other types of epidemic public health events in the future.From January 23 to March 31,2020,the COVID-19 epidemic data in Hubei province were collected to analyze the risk assessment of large-scale public health emergencies in cities,classify the risk levels of 17 cities and states in Hubei province,sort out the development stage of the epidemic,and propose targeted risk reduction measures from the perspective of government managers.The results show that: firstly,the "transmission-death" assessment framework enables a more comprehensive assessment of the risk level of cities in the event of a major public health emergency.Secondly,in the event of a major public health emergency,there are altogether 1 superhigh-risk city,10 high-risk cities,5 medium-risk cities and 1 low-risk city in Hubei Province.The incubation period of the epidemic in Hubei province is mainly divided into three stages: incubation period,outbreak and spread period,treatment period and stable regression period.Thirdly,for Hubei Province,there is a certain correlation between urban epidemic risk level and urban population density,gross regional product,distance from Wuhan.Fourthly,in the case of a large-scale outbreak,the government and managers should implement differentiated risk control measures,predict and estimate the risk level of a city in the next stage based on the assessment results of the previous stage,and flexibly adjust risk control measures.