Analysis Of Migrant’s Intentions Of Long-term Settlement And Hukou Transfer And Its Influencing Factors In Hainan Province

In the process of advancing the "people-oriented" new urbanization,the floating population is an important group,and its core link is to realize the "citizenization" of the floating population;the influx of the floating population has injected "fresh blood" into the development of the city.However,the scale of my country’s migrant population has shown a slow and flattening trend,and the continuous rise of housing prices in cities in recent years and the failure to achieve equalization of services have all put forward new challenges to accelerating the urbanization of migrants.Therefore,how to promote the further flow of the population and increase the willingness of long-term residence and settlement is a problem that the country,provinces and cities urgently need to solve.Nowadays,studying the factors that influence the long-term residence and willingness of migrants to settle in this specific area of Hainan Province can provide policy suggestions for the government in attracting and retaining talents.,the main work of this paper is as follows:First,this article uses the "2017 Hainan Province Floating Population Dynamics Monitoring Data(Volume A)",combined with the actual social and economic development of Hainan Province,to conduct a detailed analysis of the size and characteristics of Hainan Province’s floating population.The study found that comparing the data of 2012,2016 and 2017,it was found that the willingness to stay for a long time showed an upward trend and then a downward trend,while the willingness to settle down showed an upward trend.Second,in order to analyze the differences in the long-term residence willingness of the migrants across and within the province,first sort out the problems,quantify the indicators and classify them,and analyze individual characteristics,family characteristics,mobility characteristics,socioeconomic characteristics,and social integration the difference in long-term residence willingness of each variable under the characteristics.On this basis,through the empirical results of the binary logistic regression model,the education level and marital status among the personal factors,the mobility time among the mobility factors,the housing nature among the social factors,and the urban employee medical insurance among the social integration factors Participation and urban integration significantly affect the long-term residence willingness of inter-provincial and intra-provincial migrants.However,age,income,and establishment of resident files have no significant impact on the migrant population in the province,and family size has no significant impact on the inter-provincial population.Third,housing has always been the focus of the issue of long-term residence and settlement in cities with floating populations.Considering whether there is a potential selection bias in whether the floating population lives or buys their own model,this paper uses the propensity score matching method(PSM)to conduct counterfactual estimation tests,and uses probit models,RA,IPW and other methods to stabilize the above results.A sex test found that housing factors have a significant impact on the long-term residence and willingness to settle in the floating population in Hainan Province,and it has a stronger impact on the long-term residence willingness.In addition,this article also analyzes the heterogeneity of floating populations of different ages,employment status,and local difficulties.Finally,relevant policy recommendations are given based on the conclusions of the research.