Analysis Of China’s Export Potential With The Belt And Road Countries Based On The Gravity Model

In September 2013,When President Xi Jinping had a visit to Kazakhstan,he put forward the Silk Road Economic Belt.This initiative can strengthen the Eurasian countries economic ties and in-depth cooperation to expand trade.Upon the application of innovation cooperation mode,countries established community economic development and formed regional cooperation,widely.In October of the same year,during his visit to southeast Asian nations,he proposed that China would like to develop marine cooperative partnership with them and jointly build 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road.Thus,One Belt And One Road was formally put forward.China is facing a stage of economic transition.The strategy conforms to the needs of the development of the times and the reform of global change.It is the road that leads mankind to a higher level of economic and social development,with the network of different countries.It is a grand blueprint for winwin regional economic cooperation.This thesis analyzes the influence factors and their influence of China’s export trade to these countries and researches China’s export trade potentiality to them using gravity model based on the panel data of economy and trade between China and the 55 countries for 12 years.In the end,reasonable and effective measures are proposed.The empirical results show that factors such as national economic aggregate,population,trade agreement and common language can promote China’s export to countries along the One Belt and One road,while the distance factor increases the transportation cost and time cost to a certain extent and has a certain inhibitory effect on China’s export trade.China’s export trade with East Asia and Central Asia is relatively sufficient,especially the excessive trade with Central Asia.The potential of export trade to South Asia is huge and there is much room for trade growth.The export trade potential to Southeast Asia,West Asia,North Africa and Central and Eastern Europe can be explored furtherly.