Research On The Third-Country Effect Of Political Risk On China’s Export Trade Under The Background Of The Belt And Road

With the progress of the integration of the world economy and the Belt and Road initiative,the economic and trade relations between China and the countries along the Belt and Road has been maintained frequently.However,the political situation in many countries along the Belt and Road is turbulent and the political risk is relatively high.The exportation from China to the Belt and Road countries will be affected not only by the import country’s political risk,but also by the political risk of the third country,which means taking a spillover effect.Based on the Spatial Econometric Model,this paper analyzes the influence of the third-country’s political risk on China’s export under the background of the Belt and Road.Firstly,this paper analyzes the status quo of China’s export trade to the Belt and Road countries and the main political risk for these countries in detail.Secondly,the study extends the bilateral effects of political risk on trade to multilateral effects.The paper digs in the third-country effect of China’s export to the countries along the Belt and Road by employing spatial Durbin model,and using the panel data from 2005 to 2017.Finally,the results show that:(1)China’s export to the Belt and Road has a significant spatial correlation.(2)The more China’s export trade to the third-country,the more export trade to the import country.(3)China’s export to the Belt and Road countries will be affected by the political risk of the third-country,the higher political risk of the third-country,the less China’s export to the import country.(4)The import country’s GDP,population and China’s OFDI stocks in the Belt and Road countries all have a significant positive effect on the export trade while trade costs and tax rates have a significant negative effect on export trade.The import country’s political risks,WTO membership,and the distance between China and the import country do not have a significant effect on the export trade.Therefore,China should pay attention to the political risks of the third-country when carrying out export trade to the Belt and Road.