Research On The Factors Affecting And Potential Of Bilateral Trade Between China And Ukrain

The bilateral trade between China and Ukraine has achieved continuous development in recent years,but there are still some influencing factors in the bilateral trade,and the trade between the two countries still has great potential for development.The purpose of this paper is to study the bilateral trade between China and Ukraine,and the purpose is to analyze the effect of the influencing factors of bilateral trade and the size of the trade potential.China is the largest export market of Ukraine and the largest source of Ukrainian goods.Ukraine’s exports to China are dominated by primary products,and Ukraine’s imports from China are dominated by industrial manufactures.The main measures used in the study of the complementarity of trade between Ukraine and China include the Index of Explicit Comparative Advantage,the Index of Export Similarity,and the Index of Trade Complementarity as a way to identify the problems of bilateral trade.The products in which Ukraine has a competitive advantage are agricultural and mineral products,while the products in which China has a competitive advantage are industrial manufactured goods.The similarity of the export products of the two countries is low,thus presenting a higher possibility of complementarity.The problems in the current development of economic cooperation between China and Ukraine are mainly the small scale of trade,bilateral trade has not reached a balanced state,and the trade between the two countries needs to be adjusted structurally.In the context of this study,the methods used are the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model and the trade inefficiency model to analyze what is affected in the process of trade between China and Ukraine,and then to be able to understand the development trend of bilateral trade between the two countries.The factors that strongly influence the development of economic cooperation between China and Ukraine include GDP per capita,population size,geographical distance,bilateral free trade agreements,the level of infrastructure in Ukraine,and trade costs.Among them,GDP per capita of China and Ukraine,bilateral free trade agreement,and infrastructure level of Ukraine have a significant contribution to bilateral trade;the number of Chinese population,geographical distance of China and Ukraine,and bilateral trade cost have a significant negative effect on trade between the two countries.The trade potential calculation shows that China’s export efficiency to Ukraine is relatively high,but the room for expansion of trade potential needs to be expanded;Ukraine’s export efficiency to China is influenced by human factors,and there is great potential for expansion of exports to China.China and Ukraine should deepen trade cooperation,and Ukraine should strengthen the construction of financial system,port and other infrastructure construction,and exchange rate market management,so as to promote the improvement of China-Ukraine trade efficiency and trade potential.