Research On The Influence Of Two-child Policy On Pension Fund Operation

The pension insurance has great influence on the interests of the people,covering the wide area.However,With the degree of population aging deepening,pension insurance is in the face of huge pressure.As a positive response to the situation of the aging population,The universal two-child policy is putted forward in the "13th Five-Year" planning.The implementation of the universal two-child policy is bound to increase the birth rate,ameliorating the structure of the population in our country,alleviating the degree of population aging,improving the ratio of the basic endowment insurance system,which is helpful to improve the balance of the income and expenditure of the pension insurance.Therefore,it is necessary for future work of guiding social insurance to study that the policy play a short term and long term,positive and negative role in the pension insurance.The paper takes the city of Shanghai,which population aging is serious as an example,first of all,using panel data analyses the present demographic feature of Shanghai to realize the environment carrying out the universal two-child policy in Shanghai;In order to study that the universal two-child policy of shanghai impact on pension fund operation,the article adopt the method of questionnaire survey to find the willingness of birthing and the affected factors on the object which age is suitable for birthing.Second,because the future population age structure is closely related to the pension fund operation,therefore,building population forecast model predict the changes of future population.On the one hand,in the circumstance of non-implementing the universal two-child policy,building the population forecast model,which based on the existing population quantity and structure,predict the future demographic changes in 50 years;On the other hand,in the circumstance of implementing the universal two-child policy,building population forecast model which is on the basis of the willingness results of the survey predict the future population changes in 50 years.Compared each other,it bringthe population effect about the universal two-child policy.Moreover,using the population forecast results explore that the population structures effect on the pension fund operation in the circumstance of non-implementing the universal two-child policy or in the circumstance of implementing the universal two-child policy.Finally,combining with the research conclusion and draw lessons from international experience,put forward the relevant countermeasures and Suggestions for Chinese national conditions.The main conclusions of the paper studies are: firstly,the implementation of the the universal two-child policy make the working-age population increase since 2031,increasing about 690 thousand people in 2065,which is helpful to improve the structure of population;secondly,the population structure that is caused by the implementation of the universal two-child policy narrowed the deficit gap of the pension insurance by 4% in2016-2065,if increasing the intensity about the implementation of the the universal two-child policy,the deficit gap of the pension insurance will shrink by 6%in 2016-2065,which is beneficial to improve the operation of the pension insurance;thirdly,the birthing willingness of the universal two-child is not strong in Shanghai,and the economic income level is the main factors influencing the birthing willingness.Taking active measures to encourage the implementation of the universal two-child policy optimize the structure of the population,promoting the healthy growth of the pension operation.