The Influence Of Aging On Endowment Insurance Expenditure Based On The "Universal Two-child" Policy

With the deepening of the aging of the population,the aging of the population has become an important factor that affects the economic and social stability of our country,and deeply influences the transformation of our country's economic growth mode and the upgrade of the resident's consumption structure.The old-age pressure brought by the old population to the children is also the focus of the common concern of the society.At the same time,the expenditure of the old-age insurance in China is increasing year by year,and the pressure of the old-age insurance is increasing.In addition,the introduction of the "all-round two-child" policy will affect the old-age pension,and It still needs to be further clarified by the academic community.In this paper,on the basis of combing the way that aging affects the expenditure of old-age insurance,this paper empirically analyzes the influence of population aging on the expenditure of old-age insurance under the policy of "comprehensive two-child".Try to guide our country to effectively deal with the aging of the population and alleviate the pressure of old-age insurance expenditure to make contributions.First of all,in the background of the "all-round two-child" policy,the present situation of the population aging in China and the status of the old-age insurance expenditure are analyzed.Secondly,on the basis of the induction and arrangement of the existing research results,the three main routes of aging the old-age insurance expenditure are analyzed and the theoretical mechanism of the aging of the old-age insurance expenditure is examined.Thirdly,using the data of 31 provinces in China for the period of 2006-2017,the aging level,the income level of the old-age insurance,the education level of the residents,the per capita income of the residents and the impact of the urbanization rate on the expenditure level of the old-age insurance are checked,and the GMM method using the dynamic panel system In that short term,the expenditure of the old-age insurance in China will increase with the increase of the population of our country,and the income of the resident and the income of the old-age insurance will be increase.The urbanization rate has a positive effecton the expenditure of the old-age insurance,and the influence of the education level on the old-age insurance is negative.In addition,a fixed-effect model is also used to verify the robustness of the system GMM method estimation results.Finally,using the Leslie model to construct the population development equation,the total fertility rate under the "all-round two-child" policy is determined and the Grey-Marko is used.The v model forecasts the population development under the policy of "two children in an all-round way" and the trend of population aging under the policies of "one child and two children" and "two children in an all-round way".According to the regression estimation coefficient,the expenditure of pension fund under the comprehensive two-child policy is calculated.The study found that the impact of the "comprehensive two-child" policy in the short term in the future is not significant,but in the long run,it may be able to ease the pressure of raising old age.Therefore,China needs to implement the "comprehensive two-child" policy,but also need other policies to cooperate with the implementation,in order to achieve the purpose of alleviating the aging of the population and reducing the expenditure of the pension fund more quickly,directly and effectively.