Research On The Duration Of Export Trade Of Cultural Products From China To One Belt And One Road Countries

At present,the international situation is complex,and the unstable factors of export trade are increasing.This paper studies the factors that affect the development of China’s cultural products export trade from the perspective of trade duration,so as to provide some new reference ideas for the stable growth of China’s cultural product export to One Belt And One Road countries.The duration of trade is the time between the entry of a product into a particular market and its exit from that place.This paper selects the China’s cultural product export to One Belt And One Road countries’ trade data.Firstly,The present situation and existing problems of cultural products exported from China to One Belt And One Road countries were analyzed by descriptive statistical method.Through analysis,it is found that the export scale of cultural products is expanding as a whole,but the overall growth trend is decreasing and the development speed is slowing down.As for the trade structure,the export shares of different types of core cultural products differ greatly.The export products are mainly manufacturing cultural products with low added value,and the export structure of cultural products needs to be adjusted.There are also great differences in regional distribution.The exports are mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia,and the markets in other regions need to be further developed.Based on the Kaplan-Meier survival function in the survival analysis method,this paper analyzed the trade duration distribution of China’s cultural products exported to One Belt And One Road countries by taking the export data of core cultural products from2002 to 2019 as the research object.Through the overall estimate of duration of cultural products export and survival based on product level and national level function estimation,found that cultural products export trade of whole duration is shorter,the median survival time is generally within 2 years or so,survival rate of negative time dependence of the trade relationship,at the beginning of the trade risk rising sharply,and the extent of change over time.The paper carries out the empirical analysis of the factors that affect the duration of trade by using the risk function model.And it uses the Cox p H model to carry out the empirical analysis of the variables.The variable indicators at the national level show that the larger the economic scale,the lower the risk rate of the failure of the export trade relationship;the closer the geographical distance to the cultural distance,the longer the duration of the trade.The variable indicators at the product level show that the larger the initial trade scale is,the lower the risk of the failure of the trade relationship is;the higher the unit value of the product is,the higher the risk rate of the export trade relationship is;and the shorter the trade duration is.Finally,suggestions are put forward for the existing problems of the export of cultural products in China from the perspective of the maintenance of trade relationship.