| The comprehensive urban carrying capacity is an important basis for measuring the sustainable development capacity of cities,and improving the comprehensive urban carrying capacity is an inherent requirement for high-quality urban development.In the context of economic development of China has entered a new normal,improving the comprehensive urban carrying capacity helps to make up for the shortcomings of urban development,realize a reasonable match between urban facilities and social supply and demand,and effectively solve the outstanding problems in urbanization development.As a province with large population,economy and grain production,Shandong Province has been closely following "The Belt and Road" layout in recent years,and its comprehensive competitiveness has been significantly enhanced.However,the rapid economic development brings a series of resource and environmental problems,which seriously restrict the sustainable development of cities in Shandong Province.Improving the comprehensive carrying capacity of cities in Shandong Province is not only the need to build a strong engine of complementary advantages and high-quality development,but also an important way to optimize resource allocation and achieve coordinated regional development.This study regards the comprehensive urban carrying capacity as a complete system,and on the basis of comprehensive analysis of relevant domestic and foreign literature and full understanding of the connotation of comprehensive carrying capacity,combined with the existing research and the actual situation of the study area,defines the comprehensive urban carrying capacity as a comprehensive index including resource carrying capacity,environmental carrying capacity,economic carrying capacity and social carrying capacity,and the four subsystems cooperate and influence each other,which together constitute the influence of the four subsystems cooperate and influence each other,which together constitute the factors affecting the comprehensive carrying capacity of the city.Based on this,the evaluation index system is constructed from the perspective of human-land coordination,and the urban comprehensive carrying capacity index,stress bearing index and sustainable development coefficient of Shandong Province from 2006 to 2018 are measured,and the spatial-temporal pattern characteristics are discussed;the main limiting factors of the urban comprehensive carrying capacity of Shandong Province are identified through the obstacle degree diagnosis,and the influencing factors are analyzed by combining with the geographically weighted regression model,and analyze the factors affecting the offer ideas to improve the level of urban comprehensive carrying capacity of Shandong Province,so as to provide reference for sustainable urban development in Shandong Province and draw lessons from,rich the bearing capacity of comprehensive research content.The main research conclusions are as follows.(1)From 2006 to 2018,the comprehensive carrying capacity of cities in Shandong Province showed a growth trend,but there are differences in the growth rate of cities in different regions,and there is a certain growth inertia.Overall,the level is low and the development is unbalanced,with significant gradient divergence characteristics.Jinan and Qingdao are significantly higher than other areas,forming the " dual core" structure of Jinan and Qingdao.The gap between regions in comprehensive bearing capacity is not significantly reduced.The contribution of each subsystem to the comprehensive carrying capacity of Shandong Province is different,among which the contribution of resource carrying capacity is low;the stress index of resource carrying capacity,environmental carrying capacity and social carrying capacity have increased to different degrees,while the stress index of economic carrying capacity has decreased;from the perspective of sustainable development coefficient,the sustainable development coefficient of most cities in Shandong Province has increased to different degrees,but from the calculation results,the sustainable development degree of the whole Shandong Province is relatively low,and there is still a large space for future urban development.(2)The changes in the comprehensive urban carrying capacity and the carrying capacity of each subsystem are obviously different in various cities of Shandong Province from 2006 to2018.The resource carrying has little change in the overall time span,and the carrying capacity level is not high compared with other subsystems;the environmental carrying capacity has improved significantly during the study period,and the carrying capacity index has fluctuated up during the time period,and the gap between regions has narrowed;the economic carrying capacity has continued to decline from 2006 to 2011,and fluctuated back up from 2012 to 2018,experiencing the process of decline-rise-decline again-rise again;the social carrying capacity has contributed more to the comprehensive bearing capacity of cities.The social carrying capacity contributes more to the comprehensive urban carrying capacity,the carrying capacity index continues to rise slowly,and the social carrying capacity improves as a whole.From 2006 to 2018,the coordinated development levels of the comprehensive urban carrying capacity and the four subsystems in Shandong Province are in a state of slight imbalance,and the synchronous and coordinated development among the resource subsystem,environmental subsystem,economic subsystem and social subsystem has not been achieved.(3)The spatial distribution of the comprehensive carrying capacity of cities in Shandong Province is uneven,forming a "dual core" spatial layout featuring Jinan and Qingdao,and there is still a large gap between different cities.The resource carrying capacity shows the spatial distribution characteristics of high in the north and low in the south,and the difference of resource carrying capacity in the province is large,with the highest level of resource carrying capacity in Dongying in the north;the environmental carrying capacity evolves from the distribution of high in the east and low in the west to the decentralized pattern with Dongying,Tai’an and Weihai as the core and decreasing around;the economic carrying capacity shows the spatial distribution pattern of high in the northeast and low in the southwest,and forms the economic carrying capacity shows a spatial distribution pattern of high in the northeast and low in the southwest,and forms a "core-periphery" spatial structure with Jinan and Qingdao as the core areas and spreading to the surrounding areas,which effectively promoted the economic development of the surrounding areas;the social carrying capacity has developed from a long-term situation in which Jinan is "the only one" to a "dual core" spatial distribution structure,with Jinan and Qingdao as the dual core,then spreading to Yantai,Weihai and Weifang,extending to Binzhou and Tai ’an,and finally decreasing from east to west.In addition,the majority of cities in Shandong Province are in a mild or moderate disorder of coordinated development,and the overall coordination has obvious regional differences,with the eastern part being high and the western part being low,with a patchy distribution.(4)The impact and changing trend of the obstacle degree on the comprehensive urban carrying capacity of each system layer are different,but from the perspective of the impact intensity,social carrying capacity is always the first obstacle factor,followed by economic carrying capacity,resource carrying capacity and environmental carrying capacity.The five main obstacle factors of the comprehensive carrying capacity of cities in Shandong Province are the number of students in general higher education institutions,the per capita construction land,the per capita water supply,the per capita total retail sales of social consumer goods and the economic density.The ranking has changed in each year,but the number of students in general higher education institutions is always the first obstacle factor.The geographically weighted regression shows that the number of students in general higher education institutions,per capita water supply and per capita retail sales of consumer goods have a positive influence on the development of comprehensive urban carrying capacity,while the per capita construction land and economic density have a negative influence on the change of comprehensive urban carrying capacity,and there are obvious regional imbalances in the influence of the five factors on the comprehensive urban carrying capacity of Shandong Province. |
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