Several Influencing Factors On The Temporal And Spatial Evolution Of Vulnerability In Concentrated And Contiguous Poverty-stricken Areas

Geographic integrated system,which emphasizes the integration of human and natural elements,can reflect the interaction between the surface environment and human activities.In a specific space,the evolution of geographic integrated system can reflect not only the level of human development,but also the evolution of nature.The coordinated development of geographic integrated system can promote regional sustainable development,while its disordered development can cause malignant development.The present research,is intended to conduct a comprehensive study of regional vulnerability,which can reveal the operating status of regional subsystems,so as to provide the basis for the formulation of sustainable development strategic policies of government departments.Lvliang Mountain is located in the arid and semi-arid border zone of China,and in the gully area in the east of the Loess Plateau and the national key soil and water conservation area.Due to its ecological environment and backward economic development level,human activities and climate change have a significant impact on the regional geographic integrated system.Therefore,in order to obtain an understanding of the differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of each subsystem and comprehensive system,and provide reference for the sustainable development,it is necessary to evaluate the differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of the comprehensive vulnerability of Lvliang Mountain area,analyze the resources,ecological environment,economy,society and other subsystems of the region.This paper takes Lvliang Mountain area as an case to study the fragility status and influencing factors of the geographic integrated system in the concentrated and contiguous areas.Taking the relevant theories of vulnerability as the theoretical basis,the vulnerability evolution characteristics of various subsystems of resources,ecological environment,economy and society are analyzed,and a four-dimensional geographic comprehensive vulnerability framework is constructed to carry out the regional comprehensive system vulnerability evolution.Furthermore,the Feature Theory of concentrated and contiguous hardship areas is added,and use the geographical detector model to detect the factors of regional natural and social human factors on fragility,so as to reveal the main influence of regional fragility.The main conclusions are as follows:From 2007 to 2017,the vulnerability status of all subsystems and integrated systems in the study area showed a trend of low improvement.In most counties,the vulnerability levels of integrated systems and subsystems have fallen from “high” and“higher”to“higher”and“medium”,and the system’s vulnerability has improved slowly.In terms of the time-varying characteristics of the vulnerability of the integrated system and various subsystems,the vulnerability status of the study area improved to a certain extent from 2007 to 2017.Specifically,the vulnerability status improved slowly from 2007 to 2012,and the vulnerability status of each subsystem have improved.From 2012 to 2017,the fragility status of the study area improved relatively significantly,such as the ecological environment system,economic system and social system.However,on the whole,55% of counties in the study area are still in a “higher” or “high” vulnerability state.The regional development situation is grim.From 2007 to 2017,the vulnerabilities of the integrated systems and subsystems in the counties of the study area were in uneven distribution and showed a concentrated and contiguous feature.The low-fragile areas are concentrated in areas with abundant resources and relatively good levels of economic and social development,while the high-fragile areas are just the opposite.The evolution of the fragile ecological environment is consistent with the evolution of the intensity of human development,showing a certain concentration characteristics.Therefore,to achieve the goal of regional sustainable development,it is necessary to adapt to local conditions,formulate differentiated systems,and beware of falling into the trap of ecologically fragile evolution,that is,the ecological environment has deteriorated resulting from pure pursuit for development of the regional economy.Through correlation analysis,the fragile evolution of the comprehensive system in the study area is the result of the interaction between the natural environment and human activities.The influence of each factor on the regional vulnerability evolution from high to low is arranged as follows: agricultural output> economic level> government policy>urbanization level> population size> population migration> high-quality labor force>transport level> land use ease > Fertility status> Precipitation> Surface status.The overall socio-economic factors are higher than the natural factors.This is because poor natural resource endowment is a basic factor for the backwardness of regional development.In the short term,the scope of transformation and change is relatively small,but socio-economic factors will undergo huge changes along with economic and social development and policy driving.For instance,agricultural output will be greatly changed by the improvement of agricultural technology,the economic level will be affected by the national economic situation,the level of urbanization will be affected by the regional economic development,and the fertility situation will be affected by fertility concept and government policies.