| ObjectiveTo detect the influencing factors of re-identification of human injury degree cases based on current situation and preliminarily build a scoring model to predict whether the reappraisal opinion changes.MethodsA retrospective analysis of 285 re-appraisal cases from Qingdao Public Security Bureau from January 1,2014 to December 31,2019.1.Analyze the distribution of injury sites and the changes in appraisal opinions.2.The cases were divided into an opinion change group and an opinion unchanged group.Collecting general data(proponent,number of first appraisers,number of re-appraisal appraisers),data related to the appraisal procedure(whether the reason for the application is clear,whether there is a problem in the acceptance process,whether there is a problem in the implementation process),data related to the appraiser and the technical level of experts(the title of first appraiser in the initial appraisal,the title of first appraiser in the reappraisal,whether through expert consultation),then analyze the data through statistics to explore the influencing factors of changes in appraisal opinions.3.Establish a scoring model based on the regression coefficients of influencing factors,and evaluated by ROC curve.4.Make recommendations based on the analysis results.Results1.From January 1,2014 to December 31,2019,the number of cases of re-identification showed a decreasing trend year by year.2.Injury site: In the injury site classification,compound injuries accounted for the largest proportion(33.33%),followed by facial and auricle injuries(25.96%).Among 95 compound injury cases,66 cases(69.47%)had facial and auricle injuries.3.Changes in appraisal opinions: 172 cases(60.35%)maintained the initial appraisal opinion,and 113 cases(39.65%)changed the appraisal opinion.4.Single factor analysis: the proposer,the number of first appraisers,whether the application reasons are clear,whether there are problems in the acceptance process,whether there are problems in the implementation process,the title of first appraiser of re-appraisal,whether through expert consultation(P<0.05).5.Logistic regression results: The influencing factors of re-identification opinions are clear application reasons(OR=2.211,P=0.019),the title of first appraiser of reidentification(chief forensic physician)(OR=3.364,P=0.029),expert consultation(OR=2.429,P=0.032),there were problems in the acceptance process(OR=19.172,P<0.01),and there were problems in the implementation process(OR=21.515,P<0.01).The scoring model has 5 scoring items,with a total score of 0-15 points,which is slightly different from the prediction result of the logistic regression model,and can reach the requirements of risk prediction.Conclusion1.The standardized management of forensic appraisal work of Qingdao public security organs has achieved certain results,and the number of re-appraisal cases has been decreasing year by year.However,most of the cases in which the appraisal opinion has not changed have no problems,which have increased a lot of work.2.The influencing factor was the clear application reason,the title of first appraiser of the re-identification(Chief Forensic Physician),expert consultation,initial appraisal acceptance and implementation process has problems.3.The scoring model is more intuitive and convenient than the traditional regression model,and can improve the vigilance of forensic experts.4.It is recommended to perfect the procedures for re-identification of the degree of human injury in terms of the principles,concepts,acceptance and implementation. |
