| ObjectiveThe epidemiological characteristics and dynamic changes of notifiable infectious diseases in Chaoyang City,Liaoning Province from 2009 to 2018were analyzed.The change trend of its occurrence and development and the incidence of some key infectious diseases in 2021 are predicted.It provides reference basis for health administration department to control infectious diseases and health emergency work deployment.MethodsWith using the Chinese Disease Control and Prevention Information System,you can download the data of infectious diseases in Chaoyang City from 2009 to 2018.You would use Excel 2007 and SPSS 26.0 statistical software to analyze the overall epidemic profile of infectious diseases and the epidemic pattern of key infectious diseases,which use ARIMA time series model to forecast the epidemics of some key infectious diseases in Chaoyang City in 2021.Results1.A total of 28 Class B and Class C infectious diseases were reported in Chaoyang City,Liaoning Province from 2009 to 2018.The number of cases was 86244 and the average annual incidence was 280.55 per 100000.There were 20 types of B class infectious diseases and the number of cases was59258 with an average annual incidence of 192.76 per 100000.There were 8types of Class C infectious diseases,and the number of cases was 26986,with an average annual incidence of 87.78 per 100000.The top three statutory infectious diseases were hepatitis C,tuberculosis and hepatitis B.2.According to the classification of the transmission routes of statutory infectious diseases,the highest incidence rates in Chaoyang City are blood borne and sexually transmitted diseases.The number of cases was 36838 with an average annual incidence of 119.83 per 100000.Respiratory infectious diseases rank N0.2.The number of cases was 17112,with an average annual incidence of 55.66 per 100000.3.The incidence of infectious diseases has gradually increased over the years.The monthly number of cases showed obvious seasonality,mainly from June to August.Among all age groups,The average annual incidence rate is highest in the group of 10 years old and below,followed by the group of 60years old and above.The incidence in males was significantly higher than that in females,with a male-to-female ratio of 1.79:1.The largest number of cases are among farmers,followed by children in the diaspora.The third is domestic and unemployed people.4.The top three annual incidence rates of statutory infectious diseases were Shuangta District,Jianping County and Beipiao City.The top two annual mortality rates are Karqin Left Mongolian Autonomous County and Longcheng District.5.The incidence of tuberculosis has gradually stabilized over the years.The incidence of hepatitis C and hepatitis B showed a rising trend over the years.The average annual incidence of hepatitis B is highest in the group of 50years and over and under 60 years old,and the average annual incidence of tuberculosis and hepatitis C is the highest in the group of 60 years and over.The incidence of hepatitis B,hepatitis C and tuberculosis is mainly among farmers.6.It establishes the product season model of ARIMA.The optimal model for hepatitis C is ARIMA（1,1,2）（1,1,2）12.The optimal model for hepatitis B is AR IMA（0,1,1）（0,0,1）12.The optimal model for tuberculosis is ARIMA（1,0,0）（0,1,0）12.The results showed that the prediction model fitted well and the prediction accuracy was high,which was in line with the incidence Level of infectious diseases in Chaoyang city over the years.It predicts that in 2021,the number of cases of hepatitis C,hepatitis B and tuberculosis will be 1885,1950 and 1317,respectively.The incidence of all three infectious diseases showed an upward trend in 2021.Conclusions1.The overall situation of notifiable infectious diseases in Chaoyang City,Liaoning Province from 2009 to 2018 showed a fluctuating and increasing trend.The highest incidence of blood-borne and sexually transmitted diseases.The highest incidence of infectious diseases is hepatitis C,followed by tuberculosis,hepatitis B.The incidence of men and children aged below 10 years is relatively high,and farmers account for a large proportion of occupational classification.Shuangta District,Jianping County,and Beipiao City are high epidemic areas,and prevention and control efforts should be strengthened.2.ARIMA product season model has good prediction effect on key infectious diseases in Chaoyang City with high accuracy.It can be used to predict short term infectious diseases and predict that the incidence of hepatitis C,hepatitis B and tuberculosis will be on the rise in 2021. |
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