Research On Forecasting Of Cold Chain Logistics Demand Of Aquatic Products In Tianjin Port

In the context of global economy and trade,people’s living standards have been continuously improved and developed.People pay more attention to healthy food materials.Aquatic products are rich in nutrition,diverse in nutrition,delicious.With the continuous increase of consumer demand and the continuous updating of cold chain technology,cold chain logistics has developed rapidly.The hinterland of Tianjin Port is a coastal province with abundant aquatic resources.On this premise,this paper selected the aquatic product logistics of Tianjin port as the research object to explore the demand for aquatic product cold chain logistics in depth and detail.By introducing the research background,this article presents the research status of supply chain logistics,logistics demand and aquatic products,reflecting its practical research significance.Carding Tianjin aquatic products cold chain logistics research present situation,through the literature survey method to choose the influence factors of affect aquatic products cold chain logistics demand,consult statistical yearbook and statistical bulletin to collect data from 2010-2020,the influence factors of selection with grey correlation degree is greater than 0.8 as the independent variable of this study,identified as nine factors.Respectively,the grey prediction model,principal component regression prediction model,BP neural network prediction model to do prediction,by Shapley value combination forecast model is set up.The results indicate that the relative error of a single prediction model is large.The combined forecast model,therefore,proved that the combined forecasting model has higher accuracy.Using the trend extrapolation and grey forecasting model of the influence factors of 2021-2025 index forecast,the Tianjin prediction of aquatic products demand in the next five years,the results showed the future demand of aquatic products increased year by year.Carry out grey correlation analysis on each index,analyze the correlation degree according to the changes of affecting factors,show the deficiencies and put forward some suggestions for future development.