| The production of hog and the stability of hog breeding industry are related to the national economy and people’s livelihood.In recent years,the vicious impact of "hog cycle" on hog industry has increased gradually,which seriously affects the market order of hog industry.In January 4,2021,the No.1 document pointed out that China should continue to deepen and promote the structural reform of the supply side of agriculture in the new period.The key to ensuring the steady development of hog industry is to accelerate the construction of modern breeding system,protect the basic production capacity of hog,improve the stable and orderly long-term development mechanism of hog industry,further develop the agricultural insurance system,and to make sure the "insurance + futures" in the countryside has important role,which makes the income of village residents grows faster than that of urban residents,gives full play to the advantages of insurance,and further consolidate the achievements of the national poverty alleviation.Since 2014,China first proposed the top-level system design to strengthen the price insurance of agricultural products such as hog,the most widely used insurance product in China is hog price index insurance.Although the policy design has guaranteed the selling price of live hog to some extent,there are also some defects such as insufficient risk protection for the policyholder and the problem of adverse selection that cannot be solved.With the operation of hog futures market and the improvement of the modernization of hog breeding industry,it is necessary to design and develop a more comprehensive profit guarantee plan for risk assurance.As an advanced agricultural product insurance market in the world,the hog insurance market in the United States is relatively developed.The combination of gross profit(income)insurance and futures tools in animal husbandry has formed an effective risk dispersion mechanism for hog breeding.Therefore,this paper studies the mechanism of hog insurance industry in the United States,uses the existing futures varieties in China’s futures market as a tool to solve the periodic risk of hog price in China,and tries to invent a GM hog,and uses Monte Carlo simulation method to fit the actuarial premium of the above products.The empirical results show that GM hogs can provide more comprehensive risk protection for hog farmers.The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to calculate actuarial fair premium,which also reduces the adverse choice of farmers to some extent compared with the traditional established premium rate.The research significance of this paper is: there are many academic achievements of domestic scholars on index type of hog insurance products,but the research on the insurance products refined to the profit-benefit type of hog is still relatively scarce.There are only a few pilot cases of hog profit-benefit related insurance products in China,with weak theoretical basis and a thinner study on the pricing of hog profit insurance.This paper designs GM hogs which meet the market demand through the research of the design of profit-based insurance products of hog,enriches and develops the theoretical research of hog profit insurance,which is helpful to expand the pilot products and regions of the profit-benefit insurance of agricultural products,so as to get the practical application.Furthermore,this paper uses Monte Carlo model and normal copula model to price GM hogs,and better fits the calculation process of hog profits,and provides the thinking and method for the insurance companies to calculate the premium of this insurance accurately,which is beneficial to the stability of the operation of insurance companies.This paper uses the method of normative analysis and empirical analysis to define the concept of hog profit insurance from the aspects of hog price risk,hog profit risk and hog futures market theory.Through introducing the operation mode and main terms of domestic and foreign hog profit insurance,the paper mainly discusses the current domestic hog price index insurance and LPR animal husbandry risk insurance in the United States The comparative analysis of insurance and gross profit insurance of LGM animal husbandry in the United States summarizes the development characteristics of domestic hog profit insurance products and the successful experience of mature hog profit insurance products in the United States;constructs the insurance framework and clauses of hog profit products based on the current domestic hog large feed corn and soybean meal and futures market;then proves Based on the effectiveness of price discovery in corn futures market,the paper makes a preliminary attempt to price the designed hog profit insurance products;and makes empirical test by citing the price data of live hogs in 2017 and2020,and proves the feasibility of the product promotion by using the empirical results and tries to summarize the possible constraints of the product;summarizes the conclusion of the research,and aims at the current hog profit insurance Some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the problems still existing in the insurance market.According to the above research ideas,this paper is mainly divided into the following seven chapters.The first chapter is introduction.This chapter introduces the hog price risk and the effectiveness of hog futures market,the connotation of hog price index insurance and animal husbandry income insurance.Through the comparison of agricultural product price index insurance and animal husbandry income insurance,this part obtains its comparative advantages.hog profit insurance can effectively stabilize the income level of hog farmers and disperse the profit risk.The second chapter is the definition of related concepts and theoretical basis.In this chapter,through the definition of hog price risk,hog profit risk,the linkage effect of hog market and corn,soybean meal futures market,we can better find the operation mechanism of hog profit insurance.Through the comparison of hog price index insurance and profit insurance products,we can better achieve the connotation definition and product design of hog profit insurance.The third chapter is the comparison and reference of Chinese and American hog profit insurance practice: mode and product.This chapter selects the practice of related insurance products in China and the United States,including the current mode of hog price index insurance in China and the actual situation of specific products,the current mode and specific product operation of LRP animal husbandry risk insurance in the United States,the current mode,design principle and actual operation of LGM animal husbandry gross profit insurance in the United States This paper describes the experience of typical products,which can be better applied to China’s national conditions to design a suitable local hog profit insurance product.The fourth chapter is the product design of hog profit insurance.This chapter covers the product design ideas and framework of hog profit insurance.Based on the design idea of LGM animal husbandry gross profit insurance principle in the United States,the cost of hog breeding process is predicted by using the consumption of corn,soybean meal and other bulk feed,and then a standardized formula for calculating hog gross profit is determined according to the specific actual data,and the compensation amount is obtained by comparing the difference between the two.According to this idea,we can refine the insurance subject,policy design,insurance liability and exclusions.The fifth chapter is the effectiveness of futures price discovery and pricing of hog profit insurance products.This chapter analyzes the pricing of hog profit insurance products after demonstrating the effectiveness of corn futures price discovery.Due to the lack of hog futures in China’s futures market,after obtaining the proof of the validity of corn futures price discovery,the actuarial fair premium can be obtained by simulating the total compensation of the insurance company without calculating the additional premium.The sixth chapter is the feasibility and constraints of hog profit insurance promotion.This chapter defines the feasibility of the hog profit insurance product promotion from the aspects of reducing adverse selection effect and farmers’ profit risk dispersion effect(including farmers’ risk-taking analysis,insurance companies’ risk-taking analysis and government’s risk-taking analysis).Then explore whether there are constraints in the product design,such as the incomplete development of the hog futures market,whether the insurance market and futures market can be perfectly linked,and the difficulties in the actual operation,and try to give solutions and follow-up research ideas.The seventh chapter is the conclusion and policy recommendations.At the end of this paper,by summarizing the research results of each chapter and the summary content of each chapter,the conclusion of the paper is drawn,and the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward.The possible innovations of this paper are as followsFirst,take the hog profit as the research object,try to design the product of hog breeding profit insurance.Relying on the spot and futures markets of bulk feed(corn and soybean meal)for hog breeding,and taking the insurance company as the main risk-bearing body,the profit insurance product of hog is designed preliminarily.The agent of hog futures is integrated into the product design framework,which expands the theoretical research on the design of hog profit insurance.Second,we try to make an empirical study on the pricing of hog profit insurance products.According to the domestic mainstream process of hog from hoglet to slaughter,this paper attempts to establish the profit formula of breeding hog,and applies Monte Carlo simulation to carry out actuarial fair pricing of hog profit insurance products.Using the data of hog price in the first half of 2020 and 2017,this paper tentatively completes the relevant research on the pricing of hog futures price insurance.Third,the new application of insurance + futures mode.In the absence of mature hog futures trading market in China,we use the futures market data of corn and soybean meal to reduce adverse selection in the process of considering breeding cost,and apply the advantages of price discovery of futures market to the design of insurance products,which is an innovative application of insurance + futures mode. |
