Research On The Red Line Demarcation Of Permanent Basic Farmland Protection At County Level In Jilin Province From The Perspective Of Grain Productivity

Cultivated land is the most precious resource in China,and permanent basic farmland is the "essence" of cultivated land.It is beneficial to delimit and protect permanent basic farmland now and in the future.It is a powerful measure to effectively protect cultivated land resources,effectively guarantee food security in China,and a natural responsibility to solve the problem of farmers’ employment and realize rural revitalization in China.How to scientifically delimit the permanent basic farmland protection red line is the key issue to realize the scientific protection and effective utilization of cultivated land.Taking Changling County of Jilin Province as the research area,this paper explored the process and technical methods of permanent basic farmland protection red line from the perspective of actual grain production capacity(grain yield).In this paper,the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of grain yield in Jilin Province in recent 15 years were systematically analyzed,and the key construction areas of permanent basic farmland in Jilin Province were identified,and the main influencing factors of grain yield were analyzed by using spatial regression model.Secondly,the GM(1,1)grey prediction method is used to predict the cultivated land demand in Jilin Province in 2025,so as to determine the number of permanent basic farmland protection in Jilin Province in the target period.On this basis,combined with the main influencing factors of grain production and related socio-economic factors,the decomposition system of permanent basic farmland construction index is constructed.The weight of each index is determined by combining the subjective weighting method,analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and the objective weight confirmation method,entropy weight method.Referring to the regulations on the protection of basic farmland,the construction indexes of permanent basic farmland at prefecture level and county level in Jilin Province are decomposed.Finally,taking Changling County as the empirical research object,this paper uses machine learning methods such as Markov chain,ANN-CA model and Agent La model to demarcate the permanent basic farmland protection area in Changling County,and makes spatial location of the decomposition index to clarify the basic farmland protection red line in the study area.The main research results and conclusions are as follows:(1)County of Jilin province grain production space-time evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the analysis results show that the county of Jilin province grain production shows the characteristics of strong spatial agglomeration,Global Moran’s I index value greater than 0,Changchun city,Dehui city,Shuangliao city,Gongzhuling city,Yi Tong County,Changling county,Qianguo county,Shulan city,Yushu city and Fuyu city have been in high concentrated area(HH)for three consecutive periods,so these cities identified as permanent key construction of basic farmland area in Jilin province.(2)Through the GM(1,1)grey prediction method,the cultivated land demand and the protected area of permanent basic farmland in Jilin Province in 2025 were predicted.The results showed that the cultivated land demand in Jilin Province in 2025 was 6.8084 million hectares,and the protected area of permanent basic farmland in Jilin Province was determined to be 5.4467 million hectares in combination with the grain production target of Jilin Province and the Regulations on the Protection of Basic Farmland".Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)method and entropy weight method were used to comprehensively determine the weight of each influencing factor,and through the multi-objective comprehensive evaluation method,the protected area of permanent basic farmland in Changling County was finally obtained to be 236,444.45 hectares.(3)The influencing factors are selected from two aspects of natural geography and social economy.Distance from county government,Distance from town,Distance from road,Distance from railway,DEM and GDP as urban expansion factor input Geo SOS-FLUS model to simulate Changling county land use situation in 2025,with the automatic generation of permanent basic farmland protection areas Agent LA model superposition,after repeated optimization adjustment,eventually determine the Changling county of permanent basic farmland area of 237169.08 hectares and have the permanent protection of basic farmland demarcated red lines.By the contrast,more than the status quo of6188.54 hectares,natural highest 86.80% of arable land,such as compact index increased by 68.85%,meet the permanent delimitation of basic farmland quality is improved,the number has increased,the requirement of the spatial distribution is more concentrated.