| Photovoltaic poverty alleviation is a livelihood project that combines clean energy with poverty alleviation projects,which benefits poor areas while promoting the use of new energy and helping to achieve the "double carbon" goal,and is therefore highly valued by national and local governments.The implementation of photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects has achieved the transformation from "blood transfusion" to "precise poverty alleviation",achieving a one-time investment and long-term benefits.At the same time,under the influence of China’s "double carbon" policy,the share of solar energy in China will grow significantly in the coming decades,which provides great opportunities for the development of PV poverty alleviation projects,but also brings uncertainties.The objective of this paper is therefore to conduct a techno-economic evaluation of the operational risk of a large PV PPP project in a poor village and to study the extent to which the risk affects the NPV,and then to propose measures and recommendations to address the key risk factors of the PV project.Monte Carlo simulation techniques are combined with the NPV model to develop an analytical model that integrates uncertainty and risk for each variable.In the model,there are several basic input variables: i.e.average daily solar irradiance,attenuation efficiency,PV benchmark feed-in tariff,farm electricity consumption,operation and management costs,PV initial investment cost,discount rate,inflation rate and other factors,and a preliminary evaluation of the net present value（NPV）,of the PV project is carried out.According to the results of the analysis,a positive NPV indicates that investment in this PV PPP project will be profitable,as the expected benefits exceed the expected costs.A sensitivity analysis and parametric study was then conducted to show that the economic performance of the PV poverty alleviation PPP project is mainly proportional to the peak sunshine hours and the PV benchmark feed-in tariff,with the peak sunshine hours having the greatest impact on the NPV at 95.82% and the PV benchmark feed-in tariff having a 3.63% impact on the NPV,but disproportionate to the farm electricity consumption and labour costs,with the farm electricity consumption having only a 0.53% of NPV,and even less for labour costs.This study reveals the risk factors in the operation of PV poverty alleviation PPP projects and the extent of their impact on the NPV of the projects,providing a practical basis for further large-scale practice of solar PV poverty alleviation projects in China and a decision basis for policy makers.Finally,policy recommendations to promote the sustainable development of China’s PV industry are put forward.Based on the above research,the government should give more policy preferences,feed-in tariff protection and other economic incentives to PV poverty alleviation PPP projects;the location of the project has a great impact on the income of PV poverty alleviation PPP projects,enterprises must consider the local peak sunshine hours in the process of selecting the location of PV power plants,the peak sunshine hours directly affect the income of the power plant,the location of the power plant will be solar resource-rich areas as Preferred,solar resource-rich places are generally longer peak sunshine hours,the higher the power generation;secondly,also consider the local climate conditions and land resources.The project’s service life and revenue are directly determined by the maintenance of the PV modules during the project’s operation.Therefore,a comprehensive consideration of the project’s operation and maintenance work is essential to control the project’s operating costs,improve the project’s overall revenue and reduce project risks. |
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