| China’s sustained socio-economic development has promoted the rapid improvement of long-distance passenger transport.With the acceleration of high-speed railway construction,civil aviation is facing great challenges.The air rail competition in the long-distance passenger transport market not only involves the balance of interests and resource allocation,but also has an increasingly strong trend.Therefore,there are more and more studies on air rail competition in China.In this context,this thesis analyzes and studies the influencing factors of long-distance travel mode selection from the perspective of urban spatial distribution.Firstly,based on the discussion and summary of the research status of the spatial distribution of travel demand of air rail stations and the influencing factors of air rail competition,this thesis puts forward the research content and technical route of this thesis.Based on the mobile signaling data,Gaode open platform data and questionnaire survey data,this thesis makes an exploratory analysis on the distribution characteristics of long-distance travel demand from three aspects: spatial center offset,spatial distribution diffusion and spatial distribution offset,puts forward relevant assumptions according to the spatial characteristics of travel demand,and speculates the factors that may affect the selection of long-distance travel modes in urban space.Using bivariate local spatial autocorrelation,this thesis analyzes the clustering mode between the possible influencing factors and the demand distribution of traffic stations,and puts forward hypotheses based on the different clustering states of relevant variables.Finally,a binomial logistics model is established under three traffic states: flat peak,early peak and late peak.The influencing factors of long-distance travel mode selection under air rail competition are analyzed and verified from three aspects: personal attributes,population density and urban traffic impedance.The main conclusions of this thesis are as follows:（1）Some personal attributes and urban traffic impedance will have a significant impact on the choice of long-distance travel modes.Compared with travelers with higher annual income or who do not need to consider economic pressure,travelers with an annual income of less than60000 prefer high-speed rail as a long-distance travel mode.When the income in the current year is less than 30000 yuan,the probability of high-speed rail travel will be increased by 3.519,4.049 and 4.244 times in the flat peak,morning peak and evening peak models respectively for each unit of income reduction;When the income in the current year is less than 60000 yuan,the probability of choosing high-speed rail travel will be increased by 3.277 times,2.969 times and4.062 times in the flat peak,morning peak and evening peak models respectively for each unit of income reduction.（2）Passengers who arrive at the high-speed railway station with a motor vehicle travel time shorter than that at the airport tend to choose the high-speed railway as a long-distance travel mode.When the motor vehicle arrives at the airport less than that at the high-speed railway station,travelers tend to take civil aviation as a long-distance travel mode.For each 0.5-hour increase in the travel time of motor vehicles arriving at Jinan west station,the probability of choosing civil aviation in the three traffic states of flat peak,morning peak and evening peak will increase by 5.4,5.4 and 16.2 times respectively compared with that before the increase;For each 0.5-hour increase in the driving time of motor vehicles arriving at Yaoqiang airport,the probability of choosing high-speed rail under the three traffic conditions of flat peak,morning peak and evening peak will increase by 9,9 and 10.8 times respectively.（3）The travel demands of Jinan Yaoqiang airport and Jinan west railway station are mainly distributed in the central urban area,and show a "high high" clustering state with the population density.When the population is denser,the travel demand of high-speed rail and civil aviation is larger,which indicates that the travel demand distribution of high-speed rail and civil aviation stations is affected by the factors related to population distribution.However,from the perspective of 500 m grid,the impact of the living density and working density of the individual traffic community on long-distance travel is only reflected in the total travel demand,and will not have a significant impact on the choice of modes.（4）The travel demand distribution of high-speed rail and civil aviation stations shows a "high low" clustering state with the arrival time of motor vehicles and Euclidean distance,that is,long-distance travelers are affected by urban traffic impedance when making travel mode choices,but the impact of Euclidean distance is not significant,which indicates that urban traffic impedance is specifically reflected in the actual value of generalized travel cost in the "arrival" process represented by motor vehicle travel time,It is not the intuitive feeling of generalized travel cost represented by Euclidean distance. |
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