| China is incorporating the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" into the overall layout of ecological civilization construction,and relevant departments are gradually improving the carbon reduction policy on the energy consumption side of the energy system.Therefore,the operation of residential electric heating systems faces new development opportunities and challenges.In order to explore the clean operation potential of the electric heating system,improve the utilization rate of electric heating energy in the operation of the electric heating system,and realize the economical and low-carbon operation of the heating energy consumption link,this study proposes a decentralized electric heating cluster economic low-carbon regulation strategy that considers the electric heating characteristics of household appliances.In order to efficiently utilize the electric and heating resources in the residence,the indoor personnel activities were predicted based on the Markov Monte Carlo simulation,and the electric and heating characteristics during the operation of the electrical equipment were used as the classification basis,and the static load polynomial model was introduced,perform classification and aggregation prediction on the operation of indoor electrical appliances,and calculate the heat gain of electrical appliance operation as a supplement to the heating heat source.According to the thermodynamic characteristics of distributed electric heating user buildings and heating equipment,the heating equipment is abstracted to form a residential thermal capacitance thermal network model.The heat gain of electrical load operation and other indoor and outdoor heat sources are incorporated into the residential heat network model,and the operation constraints of heating equipment are added to build an "economical-low carbon" operation optimization model for electric heating.In this paper,the carbon tax pricing policy is used as the background of environmental cost price,and the explicit model predictive control technique is used to solve the model.Finally,through the simulation and comparative analysis of the example,it can be seen that the control strategy proposed in this paper can realize the efficient control of heating equipment.The heating operation cost of the heating cluster decreased by 14.03%,and the heating-related carbon emissions decreased by 12.04%.It can be seen that this method can achieve the goal of economical operation and low carbonization of the electric heating system.At the same time,because this method has a faster regulation speed in the intraday stage,it can be used for real-time regulation of distributed heating user clusters. |