Study On Spatial-temporal Pattern Evolution And Prediction Simulation Of Urban Competitiveness In Fujian Province

As the first batch of provinces of reform and opening up in China,Fujian has always adhered to high-quality development and actively implemented a number of national guidelines and policies,and the regional economic strength has developed rapidly.As an important part of the economic zone on the west side of the Straits and the core economic zone of the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road,the urban development of Fujian province shows its important status and role in the overall development of China,and also provides a material basis for promoting the coordinated development of regional economy and improving the difference in urban development in Fujian province.Since the easy-to-develop flat land area only accounts for about 10% of the province’s area,Fujian lacks reserve land resources,and the practical contradiction of urban development planning is prominent.The study of urban competitiveness has achieved important results in comparing the current situation of cities,developing urban characteristics,and developing urban construction according to local conditions,which can effectively alleviate the contradictions of urban development planning.This paper combines the urban competitiveness with the actual conditions of urban development in Fujian province.Constructing evaluation index system of urban competitiveness in Fujian province,which includes six evaluation criteria for economic industry,technological innovation,opening,infrastructure,ecological environment and culture and education.There are 29 evaluation indicators,and using the coefficient of variation method to determine the index weight.Based on the panel data of 9 cities in Fujian province from 2008 to 2018,the TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation model is used to calculate 6 individual and comprehensive urban competitiveness of 9 cities from2008 to 2018,and analyzes the time series evolution and spatial pattern evolution of urban competitiveness;the impact factor diagnostic model is introduced to calculate,rank and analysis the impact factors and changing rules of the urban competitiveness in Fujian province;and the gray GM(1,1)prediction model is used to predict the evolution trend of the comprehensive competitiveness of cities in Fujian province from 2019 to2029.Main conclusions:(1)The comprehensive competitiveness of cities in Fujian province is that the eastern coastal areas are significantly stronger than the western inland areas,and the regional differences are prominent.For the individual competitiveness,the amplitude of economic industry,technological innovation,ecological environment,infrastructure,opening and cultural education in 9 cities is 0.632,0.746,0.657,0.524,0.572 and 0.597.In terms of impact factors,although the impact of economic industrial indicators has decreased,they still play a major role,while the impact of technological innovation,ecological environment and culture and education has gradually increased.In the western inland cities,the impact of opening on urban competitiveness is also gradually emerging.(2)The development speed of most cities is relatively stable,the fluctuation range is small,and the development trend is good.Fuzhou,Xiamen,Quanzhou and Zhangzhou are basically in the top four in Fujian province,and the fluctuation range of other cities is basically no more than three.(3)In terms of the prediction,the urban competitiveness of Fujian province will be steadily improved in the next 11 years,and the regional differences of urban competitiveness is more significant.(4)In terms of the perspective of urban competitiveness promotion strategy,the three core cities in the eastern coastal cities should establish a multi-factor linkage development mechanism,and make use of the comparison of factors to give play to the advantages of core cities agglomeration.The rest of the eastern coastal cities should follow the principle of "integration around the bay" and "multi-regional superposition" to make up for the shortcomings of development.The western inland cities should rely on "mountain-sea collaboration" and deeply integrate into the "One Belt And One Road" to promote the spatial flow of resource elements.