Research On Residents’ Travel Choices In The Co-line Public Transport Section Of The Newly Opened Metro

The rapid development of urban rail transit,the continuous planning and construction of new subway lines and the continuous increase of the density of rail transit network have caused the redistribution of bus passenger flows,leading to changes in the travel structure of urban public transport.However,due to the inconsistency between the newly opened subway lines and the existing conventional bus transportation planning,construction,and operation,conventional bus transportation failed to fully utilize the auxiliary function of ground passenger flow attracting,and therefore some passenger flow was diverted to taxis,resulting in a waste of public transportation resources.Meanwhile,passenger flow distribution cannot relieve the pressure on urban public transportation,but instead intensifies regional traffic congestion.Therefore,in order to realize the coordination and matching between various transportation modes and the optimization of operation strategies,it is particularly critical to learn the residents travel characteristics and the functional division of each transportation mode in the collinear section.In response to the above issues,this paper studies the travel characteristics of residents in collinear section.Firstly,the research status of the relationship between rail transit and conventional bus transit,and the behavior model of resident travel choice are sorted out,and the utility theory and prospect theory are applied to analyze the resident travel behavior.Secondly,the main factors that affect resident travel behavior in collinear section are analyzed and clarified,from the three aspects of personal socioeconomic,transportation and travel characteristics.Then,based on the travel scenario in collinear section,buses and taxis are selected as options before the subway is opened,and subway option is added after the subway is accessible.A MNL model of residents’ travel choices is established,taking the in vehicle time,travel cost,walking distance and congestion as the index system of travel attribute.Taking the in vehicle time and travel cost as the reference points,the residents travel choice model based on prospect theory is established.In order to verify the applicability of the model,this paper takes Chengdu Metro Line 3 Phase III project and the collinear section of Bus Route650 as a case study.An SP(Stated Preference)survey is designed using the D-efficient method,and the resident choice of transportation modes under different travel scenarios was analyzed.The analysis of resident travel characteristics shows that when the significance level is0.05,age,education background,income,private car ownership,in vehicle time,congestion,travel purpose and departure time are the significant influencing factors.The comparison between MNL model and prospect theory shows that the theoretical selection of the two models is consistent with the reality,which indicates the applicability of the models.However,MNL model has a smaller prediction error and a higher applicability.It is found that the preference order of resident travel choices is reversed.Attraction effect and compromise effect are introduced to further explain the mechanism of the phenomenon,the attraction effect regards the target plan as a dominant plan,while the latter takes the target plan as a comprehensive plan,which increases the probability of the target plan being selected.The transfer of passenger flow shows that the newly opened subway replaces the conventional bus and becomes the main passenger flow carrier of residents in collinear section.When the urban roads are congested so that the services of conventional bus and taxi are significantly reduced,the passenger flow will be concentratedly transferred to subway,which resulting in a waste of conventional bus capacity and resources.When the congestion of subway increases and the service level decreases obviously,part of the passenger flow will be transferred to the conventional bus during the off-peak period,and the conventional bus plays a sound role in relieving passenger flow.During the peak hours,due to the low service level of conventional bus,and in vehicle time and cost of taxi are within the acceptable range of residents,part of the passenger flow will be transferred to taxis,which aggravates urban traffic congestion.Finally,based on the characteristics of passenger flow transfer in collinear section with newly opened subway,a constraint optimization model with significant influencing factors on controllability is proposed.By comparing the predicted value with the actual value,it is found that the objective function value is significantly reduced.The SP survey is used to complete the verification,and the results show that the optimization model works well and can provide guidance for the coordination operation of public transportation system.