Day-to-Day Travel Behavior Research Based On Prospect Theory

In order to study the two most important decision behaviors in the individual daily travel process under bounded rationality,the paper takes the process of traffic network under the influence of long-term accident from non-equilibrium state to equilibrium state as study time-domain and explores the influence of daily path selection and departure time adjustment to the evolution of road network step by step.Firstly,path choice behavior is selected as the research object,and the prospect theory is used to analyze daily travel mechanism.Then,the memory theory is introduced to develop the perceived travel time update model and the travel time reliability is referred to establish new reference point model.With the above two models,the finally path flow transfer model based on prospect value is developed.Secondly,the departure time adjustment is considered into the daily path flow transfer model,the travel time budget is introduced to establish daily departure time transfer model with the pursuit of maximizing the on-time arrival probability,and daily path choice transfer model based on path prospect value with the reference point of travel time budget is developed.Then,the eventual day-to-day assignment model is established in accordance with the above decision order.Finally,the paper selects the classic road network as an example to test and verify the two kinds of daily network assignment model,designs heuristic algorithm to solve them and gets related rules to provide theoretical basis for the research of traffic assignment and trip guidance.