Research On Joint Choice Behavior Of Intercity Departure Time And Travel Mode Based On Mobile Phone Data

In the context of the vigorous development of urban agglomerations,the economic relevance between cities has strengthened,and the demand for intercity transportation has risen.Intercity travel behavior analysis is the basis of intercity traffic demand analysis.It is a tool to explore the rules and characteristics of intercity travel,and has important reference value for the formulation of urban agglomeration traffic development strategies.Intercity departure time selection and travel mode selection are important contents in the study of intercity travel behavior.The two influence each other and work together on travel needs.Mobile phone data records real-time dynamic travel information and basic personal information of intercity travelers.Compared with traditional behavior survey data,it has many advantages,such as low cost and large sample size.Mobile phone data provides reliable data support for studying intercity travel behavior.Therefore,based on mobile phone data,this article studies the intercity departure time and travel mode joint choice behavior.First,the thesis defines intercity travel,defines the process of intercity travel,expounds the decision-making process of intercity travel,explains the relationship between travel plans,analyzes the modeling theory of intercity travel choice behavior,and outlines the investigation methods of intercity travel choice behavior.Secondly,based on the CB-SMot algorithm,the stop points in the travel trajectory of intercity travelers are extracted;based on the clusters of virtual stop points,the rule of staying at home longer than 5 hours was formulated,and the identification method of residence in the intercity travel trajectory was established,using the duration of stay,a method of destination identification under the condition that there is no,one,or more than one virtual stop is established;the rule for matching travel trajectories with stations and routes was formulated,and a method for identifying the travel mode of intercity travelers was established;established methods for extracting intercity travel characteristic indicators such as intercity departure time,intercity travel duration,and intercity travel distance;the reliability of these methods is verified by comparing the travel characteristics with a small sample of data.Thirdly,the thesis explains the correlation between the choice of intercity departure time and the choice of travel mode,determines the factors that affect the joint choice of the two from personal attributes,family attributes,intercity travel attributes,and alternative attributes,and proposes a latent class model based on mobile phone data that considers the joint choice of intercity departure time and travel mode with unequal departure time periods.The thesis analyzes its class-specific choice model and class membership model,clarifies its parameter estimation method,class number determination method,verification method,elastic analysis method.Finally,based on the mobile phone data of intercity travellers from Chengdu to Mianyang,the characteristics of intercity travel are analyzed,and the generated latent class model is used to analyze the joint choice behavior of the intercity travelers.The results show that average use of voice in the past three months,sex,weekend travel,average mobile phone tariff in the past three months can divide Chengdu-Mianyang intercity travellers into two potential classes,the time of arrival in Mianyang,the number of stops in Chengdu,the cost of intercity travel,the distance from home to the intercity hub,and the time of intercity travel will affect the joint choice behavior of various potential classes;compared with MNL model and CNL model,the latent class model has stronger explanatory power for the heterogeneity of joint choice behavior;compared with the non-joint choice latent class model,the joint choice latent class model is more able to clarify the internal mechanism of departure time choice and travel mode choice.At the end of the case,elasticity analysis was carried out and relevant suggestions were put forward for practical work.