Research On Intercity Travel Time Value And Travel Mode Choice Based On Mental Accounting Theory

As the source of traffic demand,the travel behavior of travelers is closely related to the urban traffic system.The analysis of the decision mechanism of travelers’choice of travel mode is an important work of traffic demand prediction,and it is also the basis of urban traffic planning and traffic demand management.The strong assumption of"perfectly rational man"in the traditional utility theory is contrary to the actual travel decision making behavior process of travelers.The prospect theory broadens the assumption of absolutely rational decision making,but it cannot describe and explain the multi-attribute decision making problem and situational dependence phenomenon.Based on mental accounting theory,this paper expand the principle of rational decision making assumptions,improve mental accounting model for multiple attribute decision making problems,analyzes the influence mechanism of multi-dimensional mental accounts of cost and time,and multiple mental accounts of time on the decision making of travel mode choice in the process of travel,aiming to improve the explanatory ability of the model,so as to describe the behavior characteristics of individual travel choice more accurately.Firstly,this paper studies the value of travel time of different mental accounts.The bounded rational state hypothesis and the existence of the mental accounts of travel are verified by using the travel time and cost perception difference choice decision problem.Based on the differences of travelers’sensitivity to travel time and cost,a potential category model is constructed to classify travelers,and travelers are classified into three categories:"situation-dependent","time-sensitive"and"cost-sensitive".According to travelers’willingness to pay for travel time savings,an ordered Logit model is built to calibrate travel time values of different types of travelers and different mental accounts.Then the mental accounting model is improved for multi-attribute decision making problems.The first is two time attribute decision problems.Based on the coding rules of mental accounting,the segmentation conditions and integration conditions of two time mental accounts are analyzed according to the gains or losses of two time mental accounts relative to their respective reference points,so as to realize the gain and loss coding of two time mental accounts.The second is the decision-making problem of time attribute and cost attribute,which realizes the unification of travel time and travel cost attribute metrics with the help of travel time value,and then uses the form of revenue segmentation to achieve the gain and loss coding of time mental account and expense mental account.Taking travelers’expected travel time and cost as reference points,the improved travel mode choice model based on mental accounting theory is constructed.Finally,SP and RP questionnaires were designed to demonstrate the choice of intercity travel modes.Comparing the result accuracy of the improved mental accounting model with the utility theory model and the original mental accounting model.In the goodness of fitρ~2,the improved mental accounting model(0.191)>utility theory model(0.180)>iginal mental accounting model(0.155).In terms of prediction accuracy,the prediction accuracy of the improved mental accounting model reaches 71.42%,which is 12.89%higher than that of the utility theory model and 20.28%higher than that of the original mental accounting model.The comparison results show that the improved mental accounting model has better fitting effect and prediction accuracy,and can more accurately explain the travel mode choice behavior of travelers.The elastic analysis shows that intra-city travel time of high speed rail,bus travel time,car travel cost and travel time are flexible,and travelers are most sensitive to car travel cost.