Study On The Choice Of Intercity Travel Modes In Shandong Peninsula

With the rapid development of urban group social economy,the connection between cities is more closely,the mobility of people between cities is strengthened,the structure of intercity transportation mode has changed greatly,the residents’travel needs are diversified,and more and more residents’travel choices are available.It is very important that residents choose behavior prediction as an essential part of traffic planning.Taking Shandong Peninsula City Group as an example,based on the survey data of residents’intercity travel after the completion of the Qing Rong Intercity Railway,different theoretical models are constructed to make an in-depth study on the choice of intercity travel mode for urban group residents.Using the survey method combining SP and RP,the organization conducted a survey on the travel patterns of residents of Shandong Peninsula City Group in 2018,obtained data on the behavior of residents’intercity travel,and found that the number of travel frequency of the Qing Rong Intercity Railway gradually increased after the completion of the city,the purpose of travel to go to school/go home,work/go home,leisure tourism mainly,intercity railway for travelers to study,commute and tourism to provide convenience.Compared with the resident travel survey data when Qing Rong was newly built in 2015,the travel characteristics of residents,such as travel purpose,travel frequency,travel time,travel distance,etc.are different in different time,and found that the 2018 resident travel survey data is more stable,more suitable for modeling analysis of the research data.Based on the theory of passenger flow transfer and the principle of three-time attraction,the model is constructed as a three-time attraction theory prediction model,the important parameters of the model attract radius r is defined and explained in the intercity range,r₁ is the value after the standardization of the range radius that can be reached within 30 minutes of travel by slow traffic;The model was applied to the Qing Rong Intercity Railway,the transfer rate of other modes of transportation to intercity railway was predicted,and the prediction results and the actual selection results were compared,and the results showed that the percentage error of the two was 7.27%,which was statistically required.Based on the theory of non-collecting model,the MNL model of Shandong Peninsula city group is constructed.First of all,SPSS uses SPSS to analyze the characteristic variables that affect residents’travel,and the significant influence variables of different modes of transportation are obtained,and the results show that the variables that have a significant impact on intercity railway selection at 95%confidence include age,income,car ownership,travel time and travel distance.Using the model constructed,the travel mode selection behavior of the residents of Shandong Peninsula was predicted and precision tested,which showed that the fit superiority coefficient of the model was 0.244,and the overall hit rate of the model reached84.4%,indicating that the high fit of the model could be used for prediction.Using the MNL model estimation results,the specific analysis of the choice behavior of different modes of travel shows the degree of influence of the different characteristic variables on different modes of travel,and the prediction results of the three-time attraction passenger flow prediction model and MNL model are compared with the McFadden decision factor as the reference value,and the prediction accuracy of the MNL model is significantly higher than that of the three-time attraction passenger flow prediction model,so the MNL model is more suitable for the choice of urban travel mode in Shandong Peninsula.