Analysis Of Uncertainty In Calculating Passing Capacity Of High-speed Railway Based On Deduction Coefficient Method

Calculating the passing capacity of high-speed railways is one of the key tasks of the high-speed railway transportation management department.Having an accurate grasp of the passing capacity may help guide the transportation and production tasks.At present,China still uses the deduction coefficient method which was used by the former Soviet Union to calculate the passing capacity of high-speed railways,but the calculated results are often uncertain and inaccurate.Therefore,this article aims to clarify the source of uncertainty of deduction coefficient method in the calculation of the passing capacity of high-speed railways and to explore more reasonable ways to determine the value of the deduction coefficient,so as to provide a solid foundation for providing more accurate estimates of the passing capacity and rational distribution of capacity resources.The main tasks of the thesis are:(1)The concept of high-speed railway passing capacity is clarified.The influencing factors of passing capacity are analyzed from the three aspects of facilities and equipment,transportation organization and passenger flow demand.Then,this paper introduces three theoretical calculation methods of high speed railway passing capacity-average minimum train interval method,direct calculation method and deduction coefficient method.(2)From the essence of thought and method,the source of the uncertainty of the deduction coefficient method for calculating the passing capacity of high-speed railways is analyzed,and then the uncertainty of the deduction coefficient method is analyzed from the application scenarios,and finally the deduction coefficients in each scenario are analyzed and compared with the actual average deduction coefficient(3)Taking the Zhenjiangnan-Kunshan southern section of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway as the research object and referring to actual operating data,56 train operation diagrams are randomly laid out.According to the principle of being easy to obtain,representing the typical structure of the operation diagram,and being able to describe the operation diagram more comprehensively,the stop rate,the number of stop plans,and the number of overpassed trains are extracted as key indicators,and the relationship between deduction coefficient and the three key indicators are explored.(4)The value of the passing capacity of the high-speed railway is clarified,that is,the result calculated by the UIC406 method is used as the basis for the value.Then,the method of selecting the deduction coefficient is analyzed in depth,the calculation method of the deduction coefficient based on statistical method is adopted and the calculation model of the deduction coefficient is constructed.Taking the Nanjing South-Xuzhou East passenger flow section of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway as an example,the deduction coefficients are calculated and verified.The results show that the deduction coefficients obtained by statistical methods could reduce the uncertainty of the deduction coefficient method and provide a certain reference for the actual transportation organization.