Research On Cause Analysis Of Major Road Passenger Traffic Safety Accidents Based On Tropos-FRAM

The frequent occurrence of major road passenger traffic safety accidents has caused a large number of casualties and property losses.How to effectively prevent and control the occurrence of major road passenger traffic accidents and improve the safety of China’s road passenger transport system is the focus of safety managers.Road passenger transport system is a complex social and technical system.There are many social risk factors in road passenger traffic accidents,such as personnel behavior,organization safety management and so on.There are nonlinear,dynamic,emerging and other complex characteristics among risk factors,so it is more and more difficult for traditional accident methods to understand the risk evolution and accident cause mechanism.The accident analysis method of system theory can deeply analyze the mechanism of system operation and risk accident causes,which provides a new way for the analysis of complex socio-technical system accidents.Functional resonance analysis method(FRAM)is a typical example.The traditional FRAM analysis method is in the initial stage of development.When it is directly applied to road passenger traffic accident analysis,there are still many defects,such as the poor adaptability of road passenger traffic system,the lack of FRAM analysis scope,function identification,risk quantification and so on.Therefore,in this paper,according to the characteristics of road passenger traffic accidents and the existing shortcomings of FRAM,combined with the method of Tropos model,a set of Tropos-FRAM analysis method is proposed and applied to the analysis of major road passenger traffic safety accidents.The main work of this paper is as follows:(1)In view of the characteristics of road passenger transport system and the structural defects of FRAM(lack of hierarchy,unclear analysis scope and scale,and difficult to identify personnel communication interaction),the target layer and personnel layer are constructed on top of the traditional FRAM function layer.In the target layer,through the establishment of Tropos target architecture,the defects of fuzzy analysis scope and scale of FRAM are effectively solved,and the in-depth analysis of participants’ target relationship and interest attributes is realized by combining with stakeholder theory.In the personnel layer,HSI(human system interaction)technology is used to establish the personnel communication interaction network,which solves the problem of difficult identification of FRAM communication interaction.(2)Aiming at the fuzzy problem of FRAM function identification,this paper proposes24 model factor partition form to reconstruct FRAM function boundary for more accurate identification of functions.Method reconstructs organizational functions into two types of organizational functions: safety management regulations and safety management organization.And then puts forward corresponding evaluation system of division function variability.In addition,it puts forward the concept of virtual function without endogenous variability to further clarify function division.(3)In view of the lack of FRAM accident quantitative method,this paper analyzes the role of functional risk in the accident,obtains the conceptual model of functional risk assessment,and puts forward the fuzzy inference technology to quantify the functional risk in the accident.The quality of function output was quantified based on fuzzy reasoning system,and the same description framework and risk information fusion method were constructed based on fuzzy evidence reasoning technology.Method solves the problem of uncertainty information fusion and modeling in function evaluation under accident condition.(4)In view of the lack of road passenger transport control methods,the overall control principle of the system and the corresponding specific control means are proposed based on Tropos-FRAM.(5)Taking “8.10 major road passenger traffic safety accident” as an example.Firstly,the goal layer of accident system is established based on the Tropos framework.A total of 11 participating organizations and 17 participants are identified.Combine with the stakeholder theory,the type of participants,goal achievement and actual intention are analyzed.Then,the personnel cooperation network is established for the identified participants to analyze the personnel communication and interaction.After that,according to the identified participants and their implementation behavior,a total of 33 functional modules are identified based on the improved FRAM,and the FRAM functional network for the actual operation of the system is established.Based on fuzzy reasoning technology,the risk situation of specific functions in the system is identified quantitatively.Finally,the overall prevention and control strategy are put forward based on the comprehensive analysis of the conclusions.By comparing the analysis results of Tropos-FRAM with the official accident report and other system theory accident model results,the advantages and disadvantages of TroposFRAM are found,which provides suggestions for the follow-up research of Tropos-FRAM,and further hopes to continuously improve FRAM and its derivative methods.