| Compared with the traditional overhead and underground buried methods,the utility tunnel can solve the problems of "road zipper" of repeatedly excavated pavement,dense overhead line network,frequent pipeline accidents and so on.It is a long-term green development mode.However,due to its large investment and construction scale,long cycle,high operation difficulty,complexity Uncertain risk factors which greatly affects the final success of the project run through the whole life cycle of the construction,operation and maintenance and handover of the utility tunnel.At present,in the utility tunnel PPP project,the calculation of risk-taking expenditure within the scope of government financial responsibility according to a fixed proportion of 1%-5%violates the factual basis of risk dynamic change,which must be considered in financial expenditure management.Quantifying the risk is the pre basic work of the dynamic management of financial expenditure.The fuzzy calculation of risk-taking expenditure seriously affects the objective accuracy of the evaluation of financial affordability of the project,and the fuzzy calculation also can not stimulate the enthusiasm of social capital to participate in project cooperation.From the perspective of government financial expenditure structure,this study reasonably calculates the government risk-taking expenditure on the basis of quantifying the key risk factors of the utility tunnel,and further explores the effective dynamic management method of financial expenditure.Firstly,based on the public information of the project management database of the national PPP comprehensive information platform,this thesis collects and sorts out the initial risk list of 185 warehousing projects,uses the social network analysis software——UCINET for visualization,and identifies the key risks list of the utility tunnel PPP project including 7 risk categories and 25 risk factors:Secondly,by analyzing the government financial expenditure structure of the utility tunnel.this thesis makes it clear that the operation subsidy expenditure is the key research object below.Based on the analysis of the impact path of key risks on the calculation elements of operation subsidy expenditure,the questionnaire data of occurrence probability and influence degree of risk factors were processed by set-valued statistics.Then,Monte Carlo simulation（MCS）method is used to quantify the impact of key risks on the calculation elements of operation subsidy expenditure;Thirdly,based on the principle of system dynamics and combined with the above research content,this thesis uses software——Vensim to build the dynamic model of financial expenditure dynamic management system of the utility tunnel PPP project,and defines the dynamic management process of financial expenditure;Finally,the thesis selects the utility tunnel PPP project in Hefei Xinzhan district as the case background.After substituting the relevant data into the model,this thesis calculates the operation subsidy expenditure after the impact of key risks.The proportion of the project risk-taking expenditure in the operation subsidy expenditure gradually decreases with the shortening of the franchise period of the project.At the same time,the dynamic management system simulation and sensitivity analysis of financial expenditure for the project are carried out to verify the reliability of the model constructed above,and the relevant suggestions on the dynamic management of financial expenditure of the utility tunnel PPP project are given.Based on risk quantification,this thesis studies the dynamic management of financial expenditure of the utility tunnel PPP project.The relevant research results provide new ideas for the risk identification and quantification of the utility tunnel PPP project.Reasonable risktaking expenditure calculation and financial expenditure management can also provide reference and support for the government to increase financial investment and improve financing support,It has certain theoretical and practical significance. |
