Research On The Risk Evaluation Of EPC General Contracting Project Based On SEM

In the context of the implementation of the “Belt and Road” initiative and the upgrading of the construction industry,the EPC general contracting model,as a mature and effective contracting model in the field of international construction engineering,has become a hot spot in the academic field.my country’s EPC general contracting model is mainly concentrated in hydropower,subway,highway,petrochemical and other industries.Although certain research results have been obtained,there are still many factors due to the long construction period of the project,complex engineering technology,and susceptibility to force majeure.The occurrence of risks.Therefore,in the process of pursuing the development of the EPC general contracting model,how to efficiently respond to and control its risks is particularly important.Based on the structural equation(SEM),this paper conducts the risk research of EPC general contracting projects,adopts qualitative and quantitative methods to conduct risk evaluation research,and finally puts forward the strategies and suggestions for risk management and control of EPC general contracting projects.The specific research content is as follows:(1)With the help of Citespace V tools and literature research methods,the risk factor list of EPC general contracting projects was initially identified.Based on the SMART principle,the initial risk list was further screened by the entropy method,and finally 5 first-level index contract risks and designs were determined.Risks,procurement risks,construction risks,management risks and 28 secondary indicators have constructed a risk evaluation index system for EPC general contracting projects.(2)The article uses SPSS25.0 to test the validity of the data collected by the questionnaire,and uses the SEM model to obtain the weight of each risk index based on the mechanism of action between the risk factors and the results of the path coefficient.The results show that the weight of the first-level index has the greatest impact It is the procurement risk;the one with the least impact is the management risk.(3)Combining the weights of known risk indicators and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,establish an EPC general contracting project risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model,using Taihe(Dafeng)Food Co.,Ltd.project to conduct an empirical analysis,the results show that the EPC general contracting overall project risk the level tends to be medium,in which the contract risk level is medium to high;the design risk level is medium to high risk,which is the most risky of all indicators;the procurement risk level is medium and slightly lower;the construction risk level is medium and high;management risk level As close to medium.(4)According to the evaluation results,the key risk factors affecting the project are identified,the evaluation results of the EPC general contracting project risks are analyzed and strategic recommendations,and corresponding evasion measures are proposed for the five types of risks in contract,design,procurement,construction and management.The results show that control key contract clause risks,design change risks,design defects risks,material price rise risks,special construction organization technical plan risks,construction quality management and control,safe and civilized construction measures,construction workers’ technical level,and process handover management,The management ability of the general contractor is the risk prevention strategy for EPC general contracting projects.