Research On Risk Management Of Old Residential District Reconstruction Project

With the continuous development of economy,China’s urbanization process is further accelerated.In order to meet the people’s yearning for a better life,the transformation of old urban communities,as a major livelihood project,has attracted more and more attention from the state and local governments.However,at present,there is little research on the risk management of old community reconstruction projects,especially the project.In the current economic slowdown environment,some local governments are eager to accelerate the implementation of old community reconstruction projects in order to ensure economic growth.It is easy to ignore various potential risk factors in the process of project construction and cannot formulate effective risk management measures in advance.Therefore,further improving and enriching the risk management theory of the old community reconstruction project and strengthening the risk resistance can provide a positive reference for the risk managers of the follow-up old community reconstruction projects.This paper takes the reconstruction of old residential areas as the object to carry out risk management research.Firstly,through reading a lot of literature related to the transformation of old communities,we can have an intuitive understanding of the transformation of old communities.Then,on the basis of mastering relevant risk management theories,we use the combination of literature research method and questionnaire survey method to preliminarily identify the risk factors of the transformation of old communities.According to the list of identified risk factors,The Delphi method is used to revise the list of risk factors,and the final list of risk factors is 18 items.Then the list of risk factors is divided into 5 categories by factor analysis method,so as to establish the corresponding analytic hierarchy process structure in the future;Secondly,the risk evaluation system is constructed by the combination of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,that is,the judgment matrix with the risk management of old community reconstruction project as the target layer,each classified risk as the criterion layer and each risk influencing factor as the index layer is constructed,and the corresponding risk evaluation system is obtained by combining the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method;Thirdly,taking the old community reconstruction project of F County as a specific case for risk evaluation,through expert scoring and a series of calculations,it is concluded that the overall risk level of the old community reconstruction project of F county is 3.1109,which belongs to high risk.The five categories of risk grade values from high to low are: management risk(3.3372),economic risk(3.2361),technical risk(3.0966),social risk(2.8030)and environmental risk(2.5839).Among the risk factors in the index layer,the comprehensive weight is higher than 0.07,such as "overall coordination mechanism","local financial affordability","project approval" "Site management" is regarded as an important risk,and the other 14 factors are general risks.Finally,according to the risk evaluation results,combined with the research content of risk management,this paper classifies and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures,and constructs the risk responsibility monitoring matrix,which finally makes the reconstruction project of the old community in F county go smoothly.