Research On Influencing Factors And Development Potential Forecast Of Electric Heating Scale In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

With the vigorous development and the rapid progress of urban construction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,coal-based energy consumption is increasing and the air pollution situation is severe.Relevant research shows that the heating energy structure which is dominated by coal-fired heating is one of the important reasons for the deterioration of air quality.At present,many regions are facing the problems of optimizing the heating energy structure,promoting energy saving and emission reduction,and improving air quality.So various provinces have introduced corresponding policies to promote coal-to-electric heating in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.However,with the continuous expansion of the area of electric heating in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the scale of electric heating is restricted by many factors.In view of this,this article analyzes the factors that affect the scale of electric heating in detail,and then predicts the development potential of electric heating.It has important theoretical and guiding significance for the planning of electric heating in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Based on the central heating as the main heating method and the development status of electric heating in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in recent years,regenerative electric boiler and air source heat pump heating are selected as the main electric heating methods in this paper.This article analyzes the factors that affect the scale of electric heating from two aspects:alternative economy and low-carbon heating.For economic analysis,the annual value index of heating cost is used to construct an economic analysis model for electric heating instead of coal-fired heating.Through the factor sensitivity analysis,it can be seen that the main economic factor affecting the heating scale of regenerative electric boiler is the electricity price.When the electricity price is reduced by 10%,the annual value of its heating cost is reduced by 5.8%.However,the main economic factor that affects the heating scale of air source heat pump is the initial investment cost.If it is reduced by 10%,the annual value of the heat pump heating cost will be reduced by 5.1%.For the low-carbon analysis of heating,by applying the Laspeyres complete decomposition model,the annual CO₂ emission index of unit heating scale is used to establish a carbon emission decomposition model for electric heating instead of coal-fired heating.The decomposition results show that the main factor that affect the low-carbon of regenerative electric boiler heating is carbon emission intensity.The main factor affecting the low-carbon of air source heat pump heating is energy utilization efficiency.Considering the constraints of low-carbon and clean electricity,the electric heating development potential prediction model is established.Combining the prediction results of power supply in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region by applying the whale algorithm to optimize the extreme learning machine time series model,the electric heating development potential prediction model is used to forecast the development potential of regenerative electric boiler and air source heat pump heating.The prediction results show that the development potential of electric heating to replace urban coal-fired central heating will reach 1.686 billion square meters by 2025,including 922 million square meters of air source heat pump heating and 763 million square meters of regenerative electric boiler heating.The development potential of air source heat pump heating is greater than that of regenerative electric boiler heating.Through the analysis of influencing factors on the scale of electric heating and the research on the development potential prediction of electric heating in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,this article puts forward relevant suggestions for the sustainable application of different electric heating methods.It has certain reference significance for formulating the development plan and development path of different types of electric heating in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.