Load Forecasting Based On Resistance-Capacity Model And Operation Optimization Of Multi-Energy Complementary System

Global energy relations are tense,and the energy consumption model based on traditional fossil energy consumption leads to global resource shortage and deteriorating ecological environment.In order to cope with contemporary energy challenges,China recently proposed to strive for the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve the goal of carbon emission neutralization by 2060.It is imperative to promote the transformation of energy consumption structure and vigorously develop renewable energy.Traditional energy supply,usually independent energy system operation,the overall energy efficiency is low,resulting in greater energy waste.How to effectively break the barriers between different energy systems,establish a complete,complementary and comprehensive energy system,and adjust and optimize the output of various energy sources has gradually become an important issue that needs to be solved in the energy field.Aiming at the regional energy system with renewable energy,this paper considers the complementary operation of multiple energy sources to meet the energy demand of regional load side.The output of the unit is optimized.The main research contents of this paper are as follows :(1)At present,most of the energy supply equipment configuration of HVAC system does not match the load,which fails to accurately estimate the end load demand and causes great energy waste.In view of this problem,this paper first combs the current situation of building load forecasting at home and abroad.The commonly used building load forecasting methods are white box method,black box method and grey box method.Then,the research status of multi-energy complementary regional energy system is summarized.The research of regional energy system is mostly concentrated in the field of power,and the system is mostly used to generate electricity by renewable energy.(2)Based on the similarity of heat transfer and electricity,the equivalent circuit model of the building is established to predict the building load.The model considers the influence of outdoor weather conditions and the internal heat storage of the building.The data of different building types are identified by genetic algorithm,and the parameters in the circuit are solved to predict the load of single building.The prediction results of the model are verified and analyzed,and the total regional load is obtained by superposition of typical building loads.(3)For gas boilers,seawater source heat pumps,chillers,energy storage devices and pumps in the system,the modeling methods of each equipment are analyzed,and the energy consumption model of energy supply equipment is established.(4)The day-ahead optimization operation model is established.Considering the two objectives of economy and environmental protection,the corresponding constraint conditions of the system are established,and the solver is used to solve the optimization model.Taking the actual project as an example,four typical days are selected in winter and summer to optimize the start-stop and output of the equipment,and then the optimization results are comprehensively evaluated.