Study On The Problem Of Shelter Location And Bus Evacuation Under Typhoon Conditions

Under the background of the significant increase of extreme natural disasters,the frequent occurrence of typhoon disasters has brought huge casualties and economic losses to the coastal areas of China.In order to ensure the safety of people’s lives,it is necessary to make a reasonable evacuation plan to evacuate the affected people to a safe place,among which the key is the location of the shelter and the planning of evacuation traffic.Shelter is an important facility to centrally settle evacuees,and reasonable site selection is the primary content of evacuation plan.Given the current family car ownership,but urban low and medium power researchers(selfless people vehicles or typhoon activity ability is limited,including the elderly,children,the disabled,etc.)still occupied large proportion of cases,in addition to using the car for evacuation,in the evacuation process still need to use public transport vehicles to meet the need of personnel evacuation.Therefore,this paper studies the site selection of shelters and bus evacuation route planning,in order to make a reasonable evacuation plan before the typhoon.Firstly,the problem of shelter site selection based on fixed cost with capacity constraints is studied for typhoon disaster.Two is considered in this paper,the first kind of circumstance is due to the influence of various factors,some shelter damage happened and initial stage of known refuge status in evacuation,to this,this paper established the model of two phase and site selection,the first phase of refuge to minimize the overall construction fee and transportation cost of people into shelters for the target site in alternate shelter in the collection construction,Constitute the collection of shelters established in the first phase.In the second stage model,considering that the total number of damaged shelters constructed in the first stage is a fixed value,the relocation scheme of affected residents is planned in different scenarios.The second case is that the damage probability of the shelter under typhoon disaster is independent and the damage of the shelter occurs under the influence of typhoon.In this paper,a site selection model considering the reliability of the shelter is established.According to the geographical location of the shelter,the specific damage probability is determined,and the objective of modeling is to minimize the transportation cost of personnel,the expected transfer cost and the construction cost of the shelter.Aiming at the two models established in the above situation,this paper designed the solving algorithm based on genetic algorithm according to the characteristics of the models respectively,and verified the solving results of the algorithm through CPLEX in the case.Secondly,bus evacuation path planning model is established,the model according to the typhoon evacuation instructions to release the characteristics of the period of time when the personnel arrived at the rally point,at different times of the evacuation time varying function is used to calculate the rally point waiting for the number and describes the rally point in space and time condition of network node demand,establishing optimal driving time and waiting time for bus evacuation route model,The problem of when the personnel at the assembly point will be picked up by the bus after the demand is generated and the route of the bus between the assembly points will be solved.An improved hybrid genetic simulated annealing algorithm was designed to solve the problem.An initial solution optimization method of "enumeration before optimization" was proposed,and a process of "temporarily preserving the optimal solution" was added into the simulated annealing process to obtain high quality solution results.Finally,a large case is used to analyze the problem of location of shelter reliability and bus evacuation route planning.Chikan District of Zhanjiang City is taken as an evacuation example to test the model.According to regional distribution facilities and road network structure divided into evacuation plot,and to determine the alternative shelter and rally point information,considering the location model for the reliability of the sanctuary and the bus evacuation path planning model to determine the use of private cars in the evacuation community crowd evacuation plans and transit vehicles between the rally point path.By analyzing the evacuation results,the validity of the model and the rationality of the evacuation plan are verified,which provides a reference method for the formulation of evacuation plan in urban areas.Figures 31 tables 43 references 57.